2-metre distance may not be enough:Sir Riko Mahato

Droplets of saliva can travel as far as six metres even in low wind speeds of 4kmph, a new study has found, indicating that current social distancing guidelines of two metres may be insufficient to stop a Covid-19 patient from transmitting the disease.

The study, published in the Physics of Fluids journal under the American Institute of Physics, used a three-dimensional model to investigate the transport, dispersion, and evaporation of saliva particles from human cough.

The scientists found that when the wind speed is approximately zero, the saliva droplets did not travel 2 metres, which is well within the social distancing recommendations.

“Even with a slight breeze of 4 km/h, saliva travels 6 metres in five seconds. Therefore, depending on the environmental conditions, the 2 m social distance may not be sufficient, so crowed places will be affected,” said Dimitris Drikakis, co-author of the study, in an email to HT. If the wind speed is 15kmph, the droplet travelled 6 metres in 1.6 seconds.

To study how saliva moves through air, the scientists created a computational fluid dynamics simulation that examined the state of every saliva droplet moving through the air in front of a coughing person.

Their simulation considered the effects of humidity, dispersion force, interactions of molecules of saliva and air, and how the droplets change from liquid to vapour and evaporate.

“The purpose of the mathematical modelling and simulation is to take into account all the interaction mechanisms that may take place between the main bulk fluid flow and the saliva droplets, and between the saliva droplets themselves,” said Talib Dbouk, co-author of the paper.

The scientists considered an environment of 20 °C for the fluid, 50% relative humidity, 15 °C at the ground, and 34 °C for the human mouth.

The scientists agreed that more studies needed to be done to understand the behaviour of fluid droplets in indoor environments, where air conditioning significantly affects the particle movement through air.

“It is worth investigating the behaviour of saliva in indoor environments, where air conditioning systems may have significant effects on the movement of particles through the air,” Drikakis said.

Transmission of the coronavirus through speech and cough droplets, especially in public spaces and crowded environments, has been a major area of concern for policy makers and governments. Globally, research has shown that the virus spreads easily in an aerosol form, and even through speech.

As a consequence, governments across the world have increasingly mandated the usage of masks to help stop the spread of the infection.

Covid-19: The science behind India’s trajectoryThe predominantly asymptomatic course of the disease and limited number of critical cases merit more scrutiny

In the history of mankind, there have been several pandemics from the Justinian Plague in the 6th century to the Spanish Flu (HINI influenza) in 1918. The 21st century remarkably has already seen three coronavirus-related outbreaks — the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) in 2002 which claimed 800 lives, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) in 2012 (862 deaths), and now the coronavirus disease (Covid-19). Despite advancements in medical sciences, it is impossible to predict when the next infectious disease outbreak will take place. So, we need to be on full alert.

With India surpassing China in the overall number of infections, a comparison between the two in terms of infection trajectories is interesting. Compared to the more gradual increase of infections in India since mid-March, China witnessed a steep rise in January and February, forcing the administration to impose a strict lockdown in Wuhan on January 23 — two months earlier than India — lasting for over 70 days by which time the curve was flattened and has remained, by and large, static till date. The United States (US) and Europe have shown a trajectory similar to that of China, which makes India something of an outlier.

Noticeably, India recorded nearly 45% fewer fatalities than China, although active cases remain over 60% of the total number of persons infected, as against nearly zero in China. India’s over 38% recoveries are higher than those of many nations at the same level of infection, although still lower than hotspot European nations such as Germany, Spain and Italy. Further, while the disease remained primarily confined in China to the Hubei province in general, and Wuhan in particular, India witnessed a more widespread infection with the four states of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Delhi accounting for two-thirds of India’s total cases.

Higher recovery rates are indicative of effective adaptive immunity developing against the pathogen. On the other hand, the largely inherent immunity of the Indian population might explain the comparative lower fatality/severity rates so far observed. At this point of time, the important question is whether people who clear a SARS-CoV-2 infection can ward off the virus in the future? An answer to this will have implications for creating better vaccines.

Epidemiological and nutritional factors have been discussed to explain the population-specific differential susceptibility, progression and severity/mortality of Covid-19 across the globe. Nevertheless, deciphering genetic polymorphism of the immunologically-relevant genes that influence host immunity could reveal population-specific correlates of protection and/or vulnerability to the Covid-19 challenge.

The two most important of these are those encompassing the human leucocyte antigen (HLA) system and the Killer-cell Immunoglobulin-like Receptor (KIR) genes, both of which have evolved in humans to maintain a robust immune challenge to invading microbes. Substantial data exists on the genetic propensity of HLA and KIR systems in autoimmune and infectious diseases including HIV/AIDS.

The highly polymorphic nature of the two genetic systems signifies their functional importance acquired during the course of evolution. They functionally regulate the body’s immune warriors, namely, the cytotoxic T-cells on one hand, and the natural killer cells on the other, both of which directly target the virus and help to eliminate it. A deep understanding of these in Covid-19 will be vital in developing effective screening tools for predicting prognosis and response to therapy, including designing individualised therapeutic strategies.

In the Indian context, scientists must find answers to two critical observations. First, the observed predominantly asymptomatic clinical course of the disease, and second, the rather limited number of severe and critical cases in India so far. All efforts must be made to discover measurable immunological biomarkers that are predictive of severe disease and favourable treatment outcomes. Despite limitations in understanding the mechanistic aspects of Covid-19 pathology, the challenge is to develop strategies for recruiting innate and adaptive arms of the immune system against the virus. A recent study found that some people who have never been infected with SARS-CoV-2 harbour T-cells that target this virus, indicating that they might have previously been infected with other coronaviruses sharing sequence similarities. Again, this is encouraging data for designing therapies.

The question is how long does it take to develop reasonably effective treatments for contagious diseases? Historically, while smallpox and polio took thousands of years to get an effective vaccine, HIV/AIDS took a mere 15 years before antiviral drug therapy was developed although an effective vaccine has still not been found. For Covid-19, the rapidity with which the world scientific community has got together, sharing knowledge and information in the singular task of defeating the novel coronavirus, is indeed unprecedented.

Currently, all eyes are on the World Health Organization-sponsored solidarity trial that tests, in addition to the standard care, four different lines of treatment regimens to save lives in the short-term. The trial involving thousands of patients worldwide from genetically disparate population groups will test the efficacy of remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopanavir/ritonavir combination with or without interferon-beta. Analysing the population-specific influence of genetic systems could provide valuable information on possible differential response to treatment and long-term protection. Identifying HLA variants in infected people can help predict the severity of infection and determine who would eventually benefit from a vaccine.

Science alone can motivate tomorrow’s health care providers to rise to their fullest potential and deliver life-saving devices to prevent and treat this and future viral pandemics. In this context, innovative technologies to tackle global emergencies are urgent necessities

In its approach to the IBC, the government got it right

An impending suspension of India’s Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) was being widely reported till recently. For businesses pushed into default by the nationwide lockdown, such a suspension made ample sense, but speculation about a blanket suspension of all IBC insolvency admissions fuelled concern in global insolvency circles.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s announcements are thus being met with relief, though some ambiguity remains. Her IBC-related statements centred on (i) the impact of the pandemic and lockdown on businesses, and (ii) a revision of the definition of “default” under IBC to suspend the “fresh initiation” of insolvency proceedings based on coronavirus disease (Covid-19)-related defaults. The government’s intent appears to be a limited suspension of “fresh” insolvency cases, disallowing admission based on defaults related to the pandemic. This will avoid potential pitfalls of a blanket suspension, and underscores India’s commitment to credit reforms.

So as not to derail the progress of the reforms, the criteria for suspension of new admissions should not be open to interpretation, or manipulation by debtors. Since an existing default is the central criterion for insolvency admissions under IBC, and given the lockdown’s impact, the government may be contemplating suspension of insolvency admissions based on defaults occurring after the lockdown had been put in place. Such a clear and practicable delineation would keep IBC admissions in check, and yet permit admission based on pre-lockdown defaults.

The announcements also referred to the suspension being for up to one year. Such a fixed-duration waiver is reassuring. It will allow borrowers hurt by the pandemic a chance to recover, or to attempt to restructure outside the unsuitably prescriptive confines of the present IBC process. It will also ease the burden on capacity-constrained insolvency tribunals, and provide an opportunity to refine the Code or regulations to best serve the changing needs of the day.

Meeting the aspirations of Indians — two-thirds of them are below 35 years — requires sustained, and high, economic growth. This hinges crucially on the consistent, and appropriately priced, supply of credit. Since 2015, a series of inspired reform measures have transformed India’s reputation as a credit jurisdiction. Nearly every key player in the effort — the government, the Bankruptcy Law Reform Committee, the Joint Parliamentary Committee for IBC, the Insolvency & Bankruptcy Board, the National Company Law Tribunals, and very notably the Supreme Court — has come through remarkably in remaking India’s pariah credit regime of the past. We now take for granted outcomes that were unthinkable a mere three years ago, such as the IBC transfers of goliaths like Bhushan Steel and Essar Steel.

Notably, though, India’s credit regime transformation is still a victory-in-the-making. Much remains to be done to achieve better insolvency outcomes, including wider participation, and market-driven bids in the insolvency process. In this context, the nuanced approach the government appears to have chosen will bolster India’s reputation as a jurisdiction that takes creditor and investor rights seriously. It will also reinforce the high ground Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has gained through its resolute and intelligent reforms.

There are four reasons why the calibrated suspension of IBC, rather than a blanket, across-the-board suspension, is positive.

First, a blanket suspension would have thwarted the battle for better insolvency outcomes. With the new law and courts in place, decades-worth of jurisprudence has been created over the past three years. The system is only now evolving to restructure companies with the participation of new management teams, turnaround experts and capital providers. Distressed investors’ are also trying to help modulate inflexible resolution practices, and adapting to idiosyncrasies of historical banking regulation. A blanket suspension would have dealt a blow to the new insolvency regime readying for take-off.

Second, maintaining a reasonable flow of new cases based on pre-Covid-19 defaults will avoid destabilising a nascent insolvency ecosystem, which incorporates law, finance and business . If new IBC activity were to stall, investors, lawyers, restructuring advisers, etc., who have chosen to specialise in insolvency may redirect their efforts, leaving system capacity dissipated.

Third, a blanket suspension would have re-energised errant borrowers. To equate such defaulters with hitherto performing borrowers pushed into default by the pandemic is inimical to logic. Enabling insolvency transfers from such borrowers has taken great resolve and responsiveness, as evidenced by Section 29A bid eligibility restrictions which prioritise system-wide, long-term benefits while sacrificing higher immediate recoveries.

Finally, for investors, the limited suspension underscores the political will, vision, and grit that brought IBC to life, rather than invoking fears of the credit regime that IBC’s enactment banished. A blanket suspension of such a landmark law would have been a hark back to the whimsy-cum-grand larceny that defined Indian credit for decades. Investors are paid to worry, and would have found therein reason to doubt India’s commitment to creditor rights, property rights and the rule of law just as they are finding a surfeit of distressed opportunities elsewhere.

In this time of economic distress, the answer lies not in brushing IBC aside, but in actively encouraging its application, development and evolution. Just as the world may be shifting towards government-led solutions in the post-Covid-19 era, it may help India to find faith in market-led solutions to gain a march on other jurisdictions, and create superior insolvency outcomes.

Ensuring a steady supply of credit at appropriate interest rates is a pre-requisite for India’s continued economic growth and the prosperity of the next generation. In keeping its faith in IBC with only a limited suspension, the Indian government appears to have chosen wisely in letting a winner ru

Build back, with an eye on the environment

The first peer-reviewed analysis of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on global carbon emissions has reported that daily emissions of the greenhouse gas plunged 17% by early April compared to 2019 levels. However, the annual decline is likely to be only about 7%, if some restrictions to halt the spread of the coronavirus remain in place. If they are lifted in mid-June, the fall for the year is likely to be 4%. That would still be the biggest annual drop in emissions since World War II. While the steep drop is good news, it will make little dent in the larger battle against global warming. A UN Environment Programme report last year found that emissions must fall by 7.6% every year this decade to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of checking warming at 1.5°C.

In an interview to The Guardian, one of the scientists involved in the new study said that experience of the crisis has shown that changes in behaviour by individuals — such as not flying, working from home and driving less — can help cut emissions partly. But the bulk of emission sources remain intact, which suggests that the world needs structural changes in the economy and industry. That’s why the coronavirus-induced slowdown must be used as a moment to build more sustainable, resilient and inclusive economies. Otherwise, the climate crisis will not just have its own set of effects but also lead to more health scares, environmental degradation, natural disasters, and inequality, with vulnerable communities most affected. Every crisis now has a strong environment dimension. Use the dip in emissions to imagine a new, more eco-friendly, world.

PM Modi can learn from CM ModiIn 2001, Gujarat was hit by a devastating disaster. Its economic reconstruction is worth emulating

Riko Mahato

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation on May 12, said that ~20 lakh crore for 2020 will be the size of India’s coronavirus disease (Covid-19) economic recovery package. It was evident that he liked how the 20s rhymed neatly. Finance minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman, in a daily show over the next five days, attempted to provide the details of this package. By the end of the fifth day, it was clear that the FM realised there was a huge trust deficit in the package and mounted a pugilistic public defence, in the style of her previous avatar as a party spokesperson in a cacophonous television debate.

It also sparked an analysis frenzy on the gap between the PM’s “20s” and the FM’s numbers. Was the true fiscal size of the package, ~1 lakh crore or ~1.68 lakh crore or ~86,000 crore? Is this fiscal or monetary, an expenditure or liquidity, a demand-side or supply-side measure? This was the debate among economists, analysts, commentators and even political news anchors.

The PM’s farcical ~20 lakh crore for 2020 claim became the focal point for all discussions on what was supposed to be a serious recovery plan to help the nation bounce back from arguably the greatest economic devastation in independent India. Millions of migrants walking home, shuttered businesses and jobless Indians do not care two hoots if the package were ~20 lakh or ~2 lakh crores, as long as they get assistance immediately to survive. Alas, India’s Covid-19 economic recovery plan has descended into a struggle for media headlines more than helping a struggling economy. But, India’s political leaders and government administrators have a successful history of the reconstruction of the economy and society after a natural disaster. One example that will resonate best today is the story of Gujarat’s reconstruction after the devastating 2001 earthquake.

As the nation was celebrating its 51st Republic Day in 2001, Gujarat was hit by its worst-ever natural disaster — a 6.9 earthquake on the Richter scale. Around 20,000 people died, and 200,000 injured. A million homes, 12,000 schools, 1,200 clinics and 5,000 small businesses were destroyed. The economic impact was 3% of Gujarat’s GDP, even though the epicentre was not a major contributor to Gujarat’s economy. The Gujarat Disaster Management Authority was set up and tasked with rebuilding lives and livelihoods. An amount equivalent to 6.5% of Gujarat’s GDP and one-fifth of overall budget expenditure was immediately allocated for relief and rehabilitation. This was over the budgeted expenditure, for which money was borrowed. Gujarat’s fiscal deficit went from a budgeted 5.1% to 7.5% in FY 2001 and from 5.8% to 9.1% in FY 2002. (source: ADB) Food supplies, medical relief and cash compensation were paid immediately to the affected people. Livelihoods were restored through reconstruction activities which provided a stimulus to other sectors in the economy. This is what economists term as deficit spending in the wake of a crisis. In two years, Gujarat’s economy was back on track. No one knows this better than the then chief minister of Gujarat, who is now the prime minister.

Yet, it is befuddling that Modi is being diffident about deficit spending to cushion the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic. Perhaps, the PM fears a potential downgrade of India’s sovereign ratings by international rating agencies if the fiscal deficit is allowed to balloon like it did in Gujarat. When the rating agency Moody’s upgraded India’s ratings in November 2017, the Modi government read it as an endorsement to pursue fiscal prudence. In which case, it is important to remind the PM that the fiscal deficit is measured as a percentage of GDP, and GDP could decline precipitously if bold and appropriate measures are not taken now. So, if GDP declines much more than it should, then the fiscal deficit is going to look bad anyway, even if the government does not indulge in additional spending.

The need of the hour is to put a large chunk of money directly into the hands of the vulnerable. There is consensus among Indian industry too, some voiced publicly and most privately, that it is in their own interests to revive demand by putting money into people’s hands. It is reasonable if the government’s position is that since it is just the beginning of the financial year and the crisis still has a long way to go, one can calibrate the need for deficit spending as the situation evolves. Regardless, the timidity of the government’s response to today’s needs of the suffering millions is inexplicable and unjustifiable.

India’s Covid-19 lockdown is the harshest and the longest among all countries in the world. It is then only logical that the adverse economic impact would also be the most severe in India.

Just as we have now realised that Indian genes or soil cannot escape the laws of science and prevent the spread of coronavirus, it is also important to recognise there is no escape from the laws of economics of the adverse impact of a lockdown. Infantile claims such as ~20 lakh crores for 2020 or that the coronavirus chain of infection will be broken in 21 days are not worth discussing seriously, in this grave fight against the coronavirus and its calamitous impact.

Supporting the unemployed

India was in the middle of an economic slowdown before the pandemic. With the coronavirus, and the national lockdown imposed to curb its spread, the slowdown has potentially turned into a recession. The government’s announcement of ₹20 lakh crore package is an acknowledgment of the crisis at hand.

One key way in which this crisis is getting reflected is in the unemployment figures. Even before the pandemic, India was staring at relatively high unemployment — an official report indicated a 6% unemployment rate in 2017-18, the highest in 45 years. Over 12 million people enter the workforce every year, and India has struggled to create new jobs. This trend has now got accelerated. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate was 24% in the week ending May 17. Its April data shows that it was predominantly small traders and labourers, followed by entrepreneurs, and then salaried employees who lost their jobs. This is not surprising. If factories and shops are closed, if daily wage labourers and street vendors can’t work, if companies begin losing revenues drastically, there will be job losses. The problem is that the easing of the lockdown will not immediately restore these jobs.

That is why a key component of any relief package has to take into account this rising unemployment. By pumping in an additional ₹40,000 crore into the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), the government is hoping to create a financial buffer for those who have returned home to their villages. And by unveiling structural reforms, it hopes to get the economy kickstarted. But this will not solve the immediate crisis — where people, in the absence of jobs, don’t have incomes, which, in turn, makes basic livelihood difficult. The poor will get most severely affected, but so will large sections of the middle class who are staring at salary cuts or job losses, which will reduce their purchasing power and ability to take and pay loans sharply. This, in turn, will have an impact across a range of sectors. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that she is open to suggestions and, as the year progresses, there will be more measures. India will have to look more carefully at both the United States, which is offering a generous unemployment allowance, and the United Kingdom, which has offered wage support to workers. There will be issues of resources, and identifying and targeting beneficiaries. But India may, sooner than later, need to introduce an unemployment allowance to help citizens overcome this crisis.

***The girl with poison***written by Sir Rikomht . always react and shine .. always stand in own power

"According to the outmost situation an appearance it is said that this is very much dangerous and not in the girl child. Please do not accept such kind of child.

The incident was happened four hundred year ago, the old king tathagat was killed by the enemy and in the emperor of Magadh the king Chandak was ruling the entire dynasty.

In the regions of North India there was 4 dynasty, the Kashi, Keshav,Lichhabi,and Mogadh.

The relationship between the four dynasty was very crucial and full of enmity. The king of shishunag dynasty Maharaj Chandak was doing the rull in his dynasty.

Chandak was with great figure and lot of power in his shoulder. He looked like a big buffalo.

One servant of hij Raj Mahal gave birth 2a girl child, it it was created by his father Chandak and mother Monika.

The Astrologer Dedh preparation Tu to provide the astrology of the newborn baby. After listening the future of the child Maharaja was very much surprised and became very angry.

It was forbidden Tu you do such sound in front of Maharaja Chandak and it was very difficult astrologer of Rajmahal 2 to give the information that the child was viskanya.

Gastrologist of the Raj Mahal very my silence for sometime. The laughter man Batuk bhatta why sitting behind the Raj Mantri.

He provided the strength to astrologer 2 talk about the vishkanya.

Batuk bhatta was very much short height, he asked to king Chandak for the future of the new born baby.

The king became very much angry with red eye  he announced to all hij advisor and the intelligent spiritual people present in the Rajmahal.

All the people present in the rajmohalla was provide the sympathy to go to the laughter of Rajmahal.

Maharaj Chandak asked to all of his supportive stuff what to do?"

One of them provided advisory to give such punishment like Mantri Shivam Mishra.

"So in that moment what is the work Shivam Mishra?"have you any information about him?"

One of the the spiritual leader in front of king said that" I know his status."

'"Shivam Mishra is under the ground and his head is out of the ground.

A lot of foxes  gathering in front of his head and continue to attack."

Spiritual leader said.

"He is continue to look, I think that he want to observe all the direction of the shamshan Bhumi, I was approach toward him because to serve Brahmin.

But I think ok Shiva Mishra have no intention to take food."

Said the pandit.

"The king Chandak laugh with loud and said Shivam Mishra did not follow my advice and he continue to provide the bad information about me to all the people."said the king.

The king allowed to all the people to remember him and his cruelty if anyone did any wrong with him.

The meeting hall Rajmahal became very silent and quiet. No one have any courage to speak any single word. The king told to The Astrologer of the meeting hall,"the new born baby will be destroyed and his mother also".

The astrologer urge to the king that please do not give the so much cruelty punishment toward the mother of newborn baby Monica.

And there is another way to destroy the new born baby it may be flown in the river of Ganga.

The dynasty of Patliputra was covered by 64 huge doors. The maximum door for spy and attack for the enemy. There was one path in front of Rajmahal.

The king and another member of Rajmahal I could go outside from this path.

After a few kilometre distance there was some Sun Bhoomi. It was seen from the outside that women is continuously approaching toward the shamshan Bhumi.

Gradually her appearance clear and more moderate. Women with one hand iron rod and in the another hand a left white substances. The white cloth which was raped.

In the the very Light of Moon it was not clear.

She is continue to work with very hard and penic mind, she was very much weak and feeble. After reaching the shamshan Bhumi she did not control herself, she fall down.

A very thin sound emerge from her throat. And with that voice a very little voice of baby cry has been emerged.

After a few minutes stand up again and continue to walk.

After reaching she found that there was a iron rod which was dip into the Soil and a human head is continue to observe.

The women wanted to go aside. But c cannot walk.

She continue to look all the direction and said who are you?

After a few time she dig a small hole in the sand, then she was continue to fulfilled the the whole by the sand. Now there was a small boys requesting to please save me who you are?

The lady continue to cover the cloth by the sand,but the women can't do this.

After hearing the voice of man the Omen continue to go in front of the person.She stopped.

The woman find that there was human and some foxes continue to moving around him. The head without body continue to tell that whatever you are ghost and pret please save my life.

"Who are you?" The question is arises from the woman.

The person rjs to him that he is not any ghost he is just a human. He is is the Mantri Shivam Mishra.

'My body is completely dipped into the soil please save my life.'

Monica continue to observe him.

She recognise that it is Mantri Shivam Mishra.

Monica continue to dig the soil with complete force and within some minute Shivam Mishra just take out from the soil.

Mantri Shivam Mishra asked to the lady,"why you are coming here?"

Monika Said,"I am a servant of king Chandak, today I gave birth of a a girl child. The Astrologer of the King Chandak said that the girl child is Viskanya."

Shivam Mishra take the child in his hand and continue to observe.

He continued to go to the oven  nearby area.

After observing a lot of time Shivam is said that it is really a 20 karna please give me the child and go to Rajmahal.

No one will be informed that vishkanya is still alive.

Now I will go to to another dynasty with her.

Monica did not reply. Just bent down and observe his mouth. He stand up and look toward the Rajmahal with ferocious mind and Eyes.

In that time there was a Ulka which just breakdown in the top floor of Rajmahal.

Shivam Mishra starts to smile and named her child as Ulka.

After 12 year,once upon a time the people of Patliputra suddenly attacked to the king Chandak and his hand and leg were cut and being bounded by iron chain.

The people of Patliputra Wanted 2 kill the old King Chandak gradually by providing him lot of pain.

In the another array the distance relationship of Maharajan Chandak Sanjeet was elected as new king of Patliputra.

Sanjeet has no intention to become king his only intention to do enjoyment every time, that is why he had no enemy.

The only one enemy e in his life was women. Before king he continued his life by catching forest animal and by drinking alcohol.

Sanjeet was very simple without proudness without cruelty.

After taking the the chair of king Sanjit announced that he only e provided the good knowledge and supportive action toward the neighbourhood country.

He provide announcement to all that he will not be able to take the future of the emperor.

The Tu mahamantri taking the charge of dynasty, the great king Sanjeet continue to go forest and catch animal, continue to drinking alcohol and continue to doing spiritual activity.

the emperor was very much quiet and silent with complete peace and horrific experience in the field of king emperors.

In the neighborhood there was no Kings it was completely democratic country. The Mantri was Shivam Mishra and he provide all the lessons how to to win a war and 2 to give the maximize.

In the dynasty of Vaishali Shivam Mishra was elected as president by the people of the dynasty.

The popularity of Shiva Mishra is continually growing and there was also growing a girl child in the house of Shivam Mishra.

The girl child was the child of Maharaj Chandak and Monica.

The girl child named  Ulka was full of energy and lot of beauty. Ulka was very much energetic and full of cruelty like his father.

After that a few time also has been passed.

The very much talented and highly energetic Ulka took all the lesson from Shivam Mishra like ok how to through a weapon.

When Ulka became in the age of 16 year Shivam Mishra told him everything in his life.

Siva Mr describe everything that what was his actual identity and how he was recovered.

"To take the revenge against the king Chandak I continue to take care of yours."now it is time to take revenge, today the Chandak is not exist but the dynasty of Chandak is continuing, you have to go there and you have to completely destroy the king and his future generation."

Said Shivam Mishra.

Ulka asked what to do?

Shivam Mishra said listen carefully.

I already told you that you are a vishkanya.

'You have a very attractive figure attractive beautiful look, the man must be attracted to you like insects are attracted to burning fire.

It is sure that the husband of your must be dead."

Now there is very much good relationship between Magadh and Vaishali, in that position it will be very bad to announce the the battle. The king Sanjeet is  young. It is heard that he has no intention to do battle and to improve the dynasty.

First of all you have to kill the king by attracting him.,"

Can you do it?

Said Shivam Mishra.

Ulka just smile and ine her smile it was clear that she will take revenge.

Shivam Mishra start to speak once again,"there was no high Commissioner of Vaishali in the dynasty of Magadh.

What is rule that it must be high commissioner of Vaishali.

You will go go to Magadh as the Commissioner of Vaishali and continue to trap Sanjeet."

But I am women.

Is there any forbidden to go go in the dynasty?

Seema Mishra said there is no division of men and women in the dynasty of Magadha.

Unka continue to approach Shivam Mishra and promised him that she will must destroy the dynasty of Magadha.

In the boundary of Patliputra there was a deep forest. Through this forest is going toward Patliputra alone.

She advised to every followers and friends of Har to going through the Rajpath.

Device some forbidden from the gents person but Ulka did not understand they are request.

"I can do my best I can do to self resistance and self protection."Ulka said.

She also mentioned,"all of you must wait for me after reaching in front of the main gate before enter Patliputra."

"I want to to think something for sometime for alone."

When ulka reached the second gate of Patliputra. Her friends and soldiers while waiting there, Ulka surprisingly observe all the direction of Patliputra.

After sometime Ulka entered into the dynasty of Patliputra.

After a few minute Ulka stand again in front of a big stone, suddenly from nearby very ferocious and horrific voice is coming from the stone.

"Give me the water, please give me the water,"

After listening the request from nearby area Ulka continue to go that place.

She found that a big iron chain from the wall has been hanged, in the end of the Hanging chain there was a a man looking like animal. The man has no hand and no leg, lot of dance and dirty hair covered his mouth. The iron chain was very much hot and untouchable by the heavy sun ray.

The man hanging from the chain continue to look toward the water and said," give me water .give me water."

Ulka continue to look toward him, she has no mercy, no intensity to help. She imagine the people of Magadha is very much cruel and not any humidity.

The person hanging from the iron chain soar like animal,"please give me. Ulka requested to another word for giving water to him.

After sometime Ulka asked,"who is given you're such punishment? What is your name?"

The man replied,"you do not know?"

There is no person in Patliputra who you do not know me.

I am the lord Maharaj Chandak."

I am the king of Magadh. Do you understand? I am the real king of Magadha. I am Chandak. I am Chandak."

Ulka became very much surprised. Her body is continue to shaken, his breath is became very frequent.

Somehow full control herself and told to friend,"all of you kindly go to the shade of tree and wait for me."

After a few time Ulka turn down from the horse and gradually approach to the king Chandak.

After frequent observe Ulka said,"are you to the previous king Chandak?"

Chandak replied,"I am not previous I am recently E and king Magadh, whenever I will alive there is only king of Magadha named Chandak."

Ulka said,"then the people of Magadha did not kill you? Have you remember the name of Monika? Have you remember the Viskanya?

Chandak had no remembrance about Monica because there was a lot of servants. But Chandok reminded the name of Viskanya.

Chandok replied,"I remember that but I already give the punishment both Shivam Mishra and the child Viskanya. I dipped them into the soil at shamshan Bhumi. The Wild foxes had eaten them."

Monica replied,"that child did not Die, Shivam Mishra was also not die."

Do you not understand and recognise your own child the mejesty? Said Ulka.

The king became spellbound and surprisingly look toward Ulka.

Ulka said,"do you know the evergreen law of shishunag family?"the person who contain the blood of this family only she can murder the king."that is why I am coming here to follow the law and kill you"

Wait a few time Ulka just enter her sharp knife into the throat of king Chandak. Chandak I had no time to speak. The heavy and huge body of Chandak continue to second in the pain of Die. I want to talk something but in spite of talking his throat continue to emerges blood.

After sometime the body become quiet and silent.

Gradually Ulka rides on the horses, she did not look back, After 16 years a revenge has been happened silently.

In this way the poisonous lady of Magadh gradually entered into Magadh by washing the hand in the blood of his father.

In the very comfortable and luxurious room Maharaj  Sanjeet is doing enjoyment by playing game with the people present in Rajya Sabha.

The king Sanjeet did not marry it can be said that he has no intention to marry he always hate women.

After sometime the king Sanjeet stand up and asked question to Batuk,"what is the time of the festival of colour?"

Batuk replied that it is very much interested and laughable that it the king Sanjeet have no interest on girls and women and have a a great hatred toward the marriage and love.

Batuk just want to know why King Sanjeet have eager to know about it.

The king Sanjeet just smiled, the smiling face of Sanjit really very much amicable and attractive.

He replied that I want to know no because at that time the women and girls became very much dangerous.

Suddenly a huge volume of sound was emerged from the outside of Rajmahal, it was look like that some special person came to the dynasty.

Maharaj King Sanjeet was became spellbound and talk to own self ,"who is present at the time of relaxation and sleeping?

King Sanjeet ordered Tu the laughter Batuk to go to watch who is present at the time?

After sometime Botuk return from the outside. He looked very much surprised and his breath rate was very deep and turbulent.

King Sanjeet said to Batuk,"why you are so much breath full?"

"The respected king it is very much surprised and spellbound incident happen, I found a woman dressed with various weapons and continue to approach toward Rajmahal."

"This is not a simple woman, it may be very beautiful woman."

Said Batuk.

"Women", replied very surprisingly with round eyes. "How it can be possible"replied King Sanjeet."

In this time the guard of main Gate entered into the Raj Mahal and inform to king that there was a woman who want to meet King Sanjeet for some special work. The woman is coming from nearby country Vaishali.

the second announce of financial services

 Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday announced a mix of financial, legislative and reform measures aimed largely at increasing the pricing power of farmers – or share of profits in farm incomes – by proposing to dismantle historical domestic trade barriers, bring new laws for freer food and commodities markets, and better infrastructure.

Sitharaman’s third tranche of measures, aggregating ~1.63 lakh crore and part of a larger ~20-lakh crore stimulus, did not contain any direct cash transfer programme for farmers, or money in hand, but is a mix of new allocations and top-up to existing agriculturally critical schemes, some of them announced in Budget 2020-21 in February.

It is also an attempt to push through critical legislative reforms that can free up India’s agricultural markets and improve farm incomes. Farming, the largest source of livelihoods, supports nearly half of all Indians and it has been hobbled by myriad archaic regulations.

According to estimates by economists and securities research firms, the measures announced thus far add up to around ~18.3 lakh crore (including around ~5.7 lakh crore of monetary measures taken in March by the central bank, and the ~1.7 lakh crore welfare package announced in late March ).

Finance ministry officials said there will be two more tranches -- one to be announced on Saturday and the other on Sunday.

DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor at consultancy firm EY India, said, “One salient feature of this tranche is that the direct fiscal cost (or cash spending) accounts for nearly 30% of the estimated benefit, which is much higher than in earlier two tranches.” His reference is to the fact the fiscal cost of the previous tranches is estimated by economists at a fraction of the overall number – a Credit Suisse report put the fiscal cost of the ~1.7 lakh crore welfare package, the ~5.7 lakh crore monetary measures, and the first tranche of ~5.94 lakh crore announced on Wednesday at around ~55,000 crore.

On Friday, the finance minister announced ~1 lakh crore to fund new farm-gate infrastructure, or simply agricultural produce markets, harvest management facilities, and a law to permit farmers to freely sell their produce to any trader of their choice, potentially ending persistent trade barriers in food trade that have been characterised by so-called agricultural market produce committees (APMCs). Sitharaman said a mechanism would be fixed to assure profitable prices for farmers, which means at least a baseline profitable price signal available at the “time of sowing”. This is referred to as price discovery, whereby farmers will be able to estimate crop prices before taking sowing decisions so that they are able to grow commodities for which there will be demand.

“A central law will be formulated to provide adequate choices to farmers to sell produce at attractive price, barrier-free inter-state trade and a framework for e-trading of agriculture produce.” She also outlined proposed changes to the Essential Commodities Act (ESA), to “enable better price realisation for farmers by attracting investments and making agriculture sector competitive.”

The indication is that the government will use the law more sparingly, a proposal for which had been made by an interministerial panel to reform the sector in January. The ESA allows the government to decide how much stock wholesale traders or even retailers can store, legally called “stock limits”. Cereals, edible oils, oilseeds, pulses, onions and potato will be deregulated, she said. Stock limits will be imposed under very exceptional circumstances.

The finance minister, responding to a question, rejected the Opposition’s charges that much of her announcements were re-allocated spending and had included taxpayer refunds. “We have included schemes announced in the Budget. But amounts are being disbursed now. When was the Budget? In February. When we are giving expedited tax refunds, it is taxpayers money. I am specifically saying that,” Sitharaman said. These reforms in “agricultural marketing”, or the mandi system that controls buying and selling of farm produce, have been a long time in the making. Various panels and economists have often argued for changing the existing structures. APMC regulations require farmers to only sell to licensed middlemen in notified markets, usually in the same area where a farmer resides, rather than in an open market. They often act as cartels, evidence suggests. In December 2010, when prices peaked during the last major spike, a probe by the country’s statutory anti-monopoly body, the Competition Commission of India, revealed that one firm accounted for nearly a fifth of the onion trading for that month at Lasalgoan APMC.

Ushered in during the 1960s, APMC regulations were meant to protect farmers from distress selling. Under the system, farmers have to go through smaller crop aggregators to access bulk buyers. Over time, this has spawned layers of intermediaries spanning the farm-to-fork supply chain. This results in a large “price spread”, or the fragmentation of profit shares due to the presence of several middlemen. Farmers often get the lowest shares.

EY’s Srivastava added that “the focus on agriculture and allied sectors in this third tranche of the stimulus package may be justified due to its large share in employment. These reforms are both welfare-improving and efficiency-augmenting”.

“Terms of trade has moved away from agriculture. That is what the government appears to have realised and trying to correct,” said economist YK Alagh.

His reference is to the total prices paid by farmers in running their households versus total prices received by selling their produce. Agriculture in India suffers negative total revenues, or negative terms of trade implying that assets going out of the sector are more than those flowing in. Farming, therefore, has steadily become an unprofitable occupation, according to a 2018 study by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a grouping of 36 countries, and the New Delhi-based think-tank ICRIER.

The government will bring in a facilitative legal framework to enable farmers for engaging with processors, aggregators, large retailers, exporters, etc, in a fair and transparent manner, the minister said. “This will ensure assured returns and risk mitigation for farmers.”

“A central law to enable farmers to sell to a buyer of their choice including online channels and marketplaces is expected to go a long way in maximizing farmer realisations while minimizing intermediary transaction costs. Farmers would be able to avail of price discovery and sell their products on both government platforms like e-NAM and private online grocery platforms,” said Arindam Guha, an economist with Deloitte India. To improve animal husbandry incomes, which gives higher net returns compared to crops, Sitharaman said: “We want to ensure 100% vaccination of nearly 530 million animals... Despite Covid-19 lockdown, 15 million cows and buffaloes have been tagged and vaccinated.” To control foot and mouth diseases, which cripples milk output of afflicted animals, the FM announced ~13,343 crore. The government will set up an Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund worth ~15,000 crore to “support private investment in dairy processing, value addition and cattle feed infrastructure”. It will implement a scheme for infrastructure development related to beekeeping, according to the finance minister, aiming to increase incomes of 200,000 beekeepers. The government has extended the Operation Greens for Tomatoes, Onion and Potatoes (TOP) to all fruits and vegetables. Under this, 50% subsidy would be given on transportation from surplus to deficient markets and 50% subsidy on storage. The finance minister also allotted ~4,000 crore for herbal plantations.

“These initiatives may prove good in the long run but they do not solve the problem of farmers whose harvests perished because of the lockdown. It is clear that the government is in no mood to compensate these losses directly,” said economist Sudhir Panwar, a former member of the erstwhile UP State Planning Commission.

All told, the government on Friday announced funding worth ~1.63 lakh crore. This includes ~10,000 crore for micro food enterprises, ~20,000 crore for fisheries, ~500 crore for beekeeping and another ~500 crore for Operation TOPs, the vegetables mission. So far, the government has unveiled measures worth over ~9.1 lakh crore in the earlier two tranches since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation on May 12.

A vaccine will be found. Plan for its delivery

18 months away from an approved coronavirus disease (Covid-19) vaccine, and even longer from having one available at scale. Despite vaccine development being at this uncertain early stage, India must immediately start planning how to deliver a Covid-19 vaccine.

When a vaccine becomes available, every onwill have to run the fastest and largest mass vaccination campaign in history. India will have to vaccinate about a billion people to reach the level believed to confer herd immunity for Covid-19. Each day of the virus-driven uncertainty cripples the economy and imposes immense human costs. India should do everything we can to save a few critical days, weeks or months.

A task force on coronavirus vaccine development, drug discovery, diagnosis, and testing exists. This group’s focus is diffuse. Even in the area of vaccines, the group’s focus is primarily vaccine development, not the delivery. Immunising a billion people in a country as diverse as India will be a staggering operational challenge. To be successful, we need a powerful group to plan for vaccine delivery now.

To pull this off, India can draw lessons from two large, successful campaign-style exercises. Every five years, India holds the world’s largest general election, involving up to 900 million voters. Electoral rules state there must be a polling place within two kilometres of every habitation. India employs 11 million election workers to make sure every eligible Indian can vote. Every vote is cast electronically via more than 1.7 million machines. Despite these formidable challenges, India successfully conducts elections, widely considered free and fair.

The polio campaign is the second example. As recently as 2009, India had over 60% of all global polio cases. With an annual birth cohort of 27 million children, high population density, poor sanitation, inaccessible regions, high population mobility and a high disease burden, the obstacles to achieving zero-polio status seemed insurmountable. Nevertheless, India has not had a single case of the wild poliovirus since 2011, and it was officially declared polio-free in 2014. The victory was achieved through government ownership, partnerships with private and social sectors, innovations in programme delivery, technical advances, and massive social mobilisation.

There are over 90 vaccine candidates in trials, six in human clinical trials, with more being added every week. The vaccine candidates range across virus, viral vector, nucleic acid, and protein-based approaches — which means that they will require different technologies and processes to manufacture them. We don’t yet know if an eventual vaccine will require temperature control, ultra-cold temperature control, or not require any cooling to maintain its potency. We don’t know if it will be packaged and administered via conventional syringes or an innovative new delivery mechanism such as a micro-needle patch. We don’t know the duration for which an eventual vaccine will confer immunity. We don’t know its efficacy; of the people who get vaccinated, what fraction will be protected from getting sick? We don’t know how that efficacy will vary across different populations — will it be as effective for older people as for younger people, for populations in north India as in south India?

Despite these uncertainties, there is a lot for a Vaccination Task Force (VTF) to productively focus its efforts on right now.

First, for each of the key uncertainty drivers, VTF can determine plausible ranges and identify the most likely options. These can be used to draw up a set of scenarios for detailed planning. The VTF can then monitor how vaccine development is progressing. As more information becomes available, the ranges on the key uncertain variables can be narrowed and the priority order and details of plans can be revised.

Second, practise through “war games” will allow decision-makers to rapidly and correctly react to changing circumstances. An example: How to react to the possible tragedy of a small cluster of deaths in one state, most likely due to vaccine-related side-effects? Such “war games” are standard practice for militaries, and are increasingly used by corporates to allow decision-makers to improve their responses.

Third, no matter how fast production can be ramped up, there will be initial periods when only a limited supply of vaccine will be available, and demand will exceed supply. The VTF can draw up allocation and prioritisation rules. For example, first high-risk populations such as health workers; then, vulnerable populations such as the elderly; thereafter, individuals likely to be potential “super-spreaders”; and finally, the general public.

The VTF can also represent India in global agreements for an equitable allocation of vaccines and agree to rules for the timing and allocations of supply within India versus for export to other countries.

Fourth, India excels in one critical dimension — vaccine manufacturing. India alone supplies 60% of the vaccine doses purchased by the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) each year. The Serum Institute of India is the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, producing and selling over 1.5 billion doses annually.

Even if Indian manufacturers are part of global agreements to ensure equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines for every country, India can be assured of a strong negotiating position, as it brings critical production capacity to the table.

The VTF can work collaboratively with local manufacturers to understand how many doses can be manufactured in what time-frames, provide the necessary support to increase the number, and establish agreements to purchase a minimum number of doses at an agreed price.

Last, coherent, clear, and resonant communication will be a critical pillar for building trust and ensuring public receptivity and cooperation for a vaccination campaign.

If planning for vaccine delivery starts now, India will have a well-thought-through playbook to execute from when a vaccine is ready.

There is a humanitarian crisis in India. Lift the lockdown, now

There is no nuanced way to say this. India is in the grip of a humanitarian crisis. And continuing the coronavirus disease (Covid-19)-sparked national lockdown will be an unmitigated disaster.

I have moved from being a reluctant votary of the initial lockdown — my understanding at the time was that it was a short-term inevitability — to an absolute opponent. I say this with the understanding that I have gained from a 60-day (and counting) road trip, reporting through nine different states in the north, west and south of the country. There is panic, paranoia, economic devastation and, above all, acute uncertainty on the ground.

We have hit a psychological tipping point. This has become apparent to me every time I have walked the highways with migrant workers. In the initial 72 hours after the first lockdown, the mass exodus of workers from cities was because they had been forgotten by policymakers, politicians and the media. Orphaned by the system and left without wages or work, labourer after labourer, in state after state, told me that if confronted with death, they would rather die at home, with the people they loved.

But even after we went through a zillion flip flops on migrant workers — first they were ignored, then they were blamed, then they were asked to stay put, then they were asked to take trains for which they were charged fares — India’s workforce is in the throes of rage and anxiety.

It’s ironic that as some lockdown restrictions finally ease, and we are talking of reopening factories, the workers I meet are more determined than ever before to leave. In some ways, it is the comeuppance that some of the country’s businesses deserve.

But, even now, there is an assumption that, with the passage of time, these workers will return. My sense is different. In Bhiwandi, Maharashtra, it was past 1 am, when our car screeched to a halt at the sound of a child crying in the distance. In the deathly still of the night, we saw men, women and dozens of small children walking their way to Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh. They were going to cover a distance of 1,500 kilometres on foot. I ventured to suggest that they might try the trains and buses that have finally been deployed. They’d have none of it. They were just desperate to get home at any cost.

In Mumbai, a truck had been stopped at a police checkpoint. It was unclear whether the police was going to give it permission to move ahead and they did not appear keen for us to open the back flap of the vehicle. So, we clambered on to the back to discover scores of migrant workers crammed into a tiny space. They were looking to escape to Uttar Pradesh. One of them shouted at me when I tried to say crowding together might be dangerous at such a time. “I am a BSc. I am also aware of the coronavirus dangers. But I would rather die from the virus at home, than from starvation here,” he said.

These responses are a sliver of what I have been able to document from worker after worker over two months. I have met the family of Ranveer Singh who died 80 kilometres short of home from a heart attack in Agra, Uttar Pradesh. Or the family of Mukesh Mandal who sold his phone for ~2,500 to buy a fan and some rations, and then killed himself.

India’s poorest are suffering the most. But entire swathes of the salaried middle class are also in danger of being wiped out. Sectors such as aviation and hospitality are in existential trouble. Neighbourhoods are treating patients and health workers as untouchables. And society presidents are becoming bigoted tinpot dictators against domestic help, drivers and cooks.

We could have still suffered all of this had it brought us any closer to a cohesive policy against Covid-19. The lockdown’s aim was to prepare hospitals better, not eliminate the virus. But as I learnt in Mumbai’s Sion Hospital, where doctors speak searingly about why bodies are placed next to patients in wards, India’s public hospitals are still carrying a disproportionate burden.

Luckily for us, India has been an outlier in fatalities. In a country where thousands die from tuberculosis, cancer and kidney disease every day, the coronavirus death rates are not just distinctly lower than the rest of the world, but also way lower than deaths from non-coronavirus disease illnesses.

But if we do not lift the lockdown with immediate effect, we shall be confronted with mass ruin and a breakdown of all our structures — social, economic and emotional

The judiciary and migrant workers

Besides handling the rising number of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) cases, and taking steps to mitigate the economic distress caused by the pandemic and the lockdown, the single-most pressing issue for India at the moment is the fate of its migrant workers. For over 50 days now, millions of stranded workers, facing an acute shortage of food and cash, have desperately tried to return home. Five weeks after the lockdown was imposed, the government finally introduced measures to enable stranded migrants to return home — a process which is ongoing, but which has not stopped thousands of others from continuing to walk back home.

While the political executive has been correctly held accountable for its failure in addressing the plight of migrant workers in a timely and sensitive manner, it is also important to look at the role of another institution which should have done more in this period to address this crisis — the judiciary. On Friday, dismissing a petition which asked that the Centre be directed to identify and provide food and shelter to migrant workers returning home, the Supreme Court said it was a matter for the states to decide. The Court, it added, could not monitor who was walking or not walking, neither could it stop them. Referring to the Aurangabad incident, where 16 migrant workers sleeping on railway tracks were mowed down by a train, the court observed that there was little that could do done if people were sleeping on the tracks.

Irrespective of the merits of the petition, the observations fit into a larger pattern of the court’s attitude towards the issue. It has accepted the claims of the executive too willingly; it could have done more to order relief and protective measures; and it should have ensured strict monitoring of the process of identification of migrant workers, provision of food and shelter, and their transport. To its credit, in the backdrop of workers having to wait for as long as 19 hours to board trains, the Gujarat High Court (HC) observed that there was lack of coordination among departments and asked the government to be more sensitive to the plight of the most “downtrodden, underprivileged and weaker sections of society”, and instil confidence in them. The Karnataka HC has also done well in observing that workers can’t be deprived of the opportunity of travelling home because of their inability to pay fares. India’s poorest need help. The government has to do its bit. But the courts can help, with more sensitivity and direction.

Big boost to small biz in first trancheDOSE FOR MSMES : 4.5 million entities will get credit of ₹3 lakh-cr in collateral-free loans, among other measuresLIQUIDITY SUPPORT : NBFCs get extra funds to improve credit flow; lower tax deduction to raise disposable incomes

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday unveiled a ₹5.9 lakh crore stimulus package which includes ₹3 lakh crore collateral-free loans to small businesses, ₹75,000 crore liquidity infusion in non-banking finance companies (NBFCs), ₹90,000 crore financial support to power discoms and ₹50,000 crore cash in the hands of taxpayers.

The allocation is part of the ₹20 lakh crore ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan’ (Self-Reliant India Movement) announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday that combines policy reforms with fiscal and monetary measures.

While a finance ministry presentation noted financial implications of the schemes announced on Wednesday at ₹5,94,250 crore, Sitharaman declined to comment on the numbers immediately. She, however, said the government recently raised its borrowing limits to part fund the measures. The government on Friday raised its market borrowing estimate by a staggering ₹4.2 lakh crore to ₹12 lakh crore in 2020-21 to make up for an expected shortfall in revenues because of prolonged lockdown since March 25 that has crippled the economy.

“Beginning today, for the next few days, I shall be coming here with the entire team of the ministry of finance to detail the Prime Minister’s vision for Atmanirbhar Bharat laid out by the Prime Minister yesterday,” Sitharaman said.

The first package of ₹1.7 lakh crore was announced by the finance minister on March 26, followed by monetary measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revive the economy, which has been battered by a prolonged lockdown since March 25 to check the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. The lockdown will continue till May 17, and may be extended in some parts of the country.

Sitharaman said the focus of the measures announced on Wednesday is “getting back to work”. The fiscal and policy support will enable employees and employers, businesses, especially micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), to get back to production and workers back to gainful employment, she said.

She said a ₹3 lakh crore emergency working capital facility is provided to businesses in the form of term loans at a concessional rate of interest. “This will be available to units with up to ₹25 crore outstanding and turnover of up to ₹100 crore whose accounts are standard. The units will not have to provide any guarantee or collateral of their own,” she said. The amount will be 100% guaranteed by the federal government benefiting more than 4.5 million MSMEs, she added.

Besides, the government announced five other measures to support MSMEs – ₹20,000 crore subordinate debt-based scheme for stressed MSMEs, setting up a ₹50,000 crore ‘fund of funds’ with a corpus of ₹10,000 crore, redefining MSMEs to allow growth of units, disallowing global tenders up to ₹200 crore in all government purchases and providing e-market linkage to boost sales.

In order to infuse liquidity in the system, particularly for small businesses and rural sector enterprises, the government announced a ₹30,000 crore special liquidity scheme for NBFCs, housing finance companies (HFC) and micro-finance institutions (MFIs). The scheme will allow investment in primary and secondary market transactions in investment grade debt paper of NBFCs, HFCs and MFIs, which will be 100% guaranteed by the Union government. Another, ₹45,000 crore partial credit guarantee scheme is also planned to cover the borrowings of lower rated NBFCs, HFCs and MFIs. The government will provide a 20% first loss sovereign guarantee to public sector banks.

The MSME sector is, however, not enthused, said Vinod Kumar, the honorary president at the India SME Forum. “There’s nothing for unbanked MSMEs... Only 7% of MSMEs are using banking today. Those with no limits will close down. All the guys who have limits have already given collateral, so there’s no need for physical collateral guarantee of the additional amount only. It’s a no starter. The fund of funds has already been around, the only hope is from the NPA [non-performing asset] and stressed fund... that too, lets see, how many banks roll that out.”

Sitharaman also announced some reliefs to businesses and individual taxpayers. Measures included expeditious refunds to charitable trusts, non-corporate businesses, proprietorship, partnership, limited liability partnership (LLP) and cooperatives.

She said the rates of tax deduction at source (TDS) and tax collected at source (TCS) has now been reduced for all non-salaried payment by 25% of the specified rates for the remaining period of FY 2021, which will provide liquidity to the tune of ₹50,000 crore. However, the tax liability remains the same.

In order to reduce tax compliance burdens, the due date of all returns for assessment year 2020-21 will be extended to November 30, 2020, she said. The date for making payment without additional amount under the ‘Vivad se Vishwas’ scheme will be extended to December 31, 2020.

Sitharaman extended the three-month employees provident fund (EPF) support to small businesses and organised workers by another three months up to August 2020. The scheme provides for government’s contribution in 12% of salary each on behalf of both employer and employee to EPF in enterprises employing fewer than 100, with 90% earning less than ₹15,000 a month. This involves 7.2 million employees and will benefit them to the tune of about ₹2,500 crore.

Besides, she announced reduction in statutory provident fund contributions of both employers and employees (in companies other than those benefiting from the other EPF incentive) to 10% each from 12% for all establishments covered by Employees Providend Fund Organisation (EPFO) for the next three months. “This will provide liquidity of about ₹6,750 crore.”

In order to provide relief to real estate projects, state governments and real estate regulators are being advised to invoke the force majeure clause, she said. “The registration and completion date for all registered projects will be extended up to six months and may be further extended by another 3 months based on the state’s situation,” she said.

Similarly, contractors involved in public sector projects have been given additional time. “All central agencies like Railways, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and CPWD will give extension of up to 6 months for completion of contractual obligations,” she said.

DK Srivastava, chief policy adviser at consultancy firm EY India, said, “Nearly 30% of the ₹20 lakh crore stimulus package envisaged in Prime Minister’s speech, that is about ₹6 lakh crores, has been covered in today’s Finance Minister’s briefing. The focus is largely on the MSMEs who may be facing different sets of issues.”

“This package is based largely on credit guarantee provisions implying minimal direct cost for the central exchequer which may be just a small fraction of today’s package. Any additional cost would only be on account of defaults, the burden of which may arise only in future years. In the case of the power sector, the burden of bearing the default is in fact, on the state governments.”

TDS rate cut to leave professionals, equity investors with cash

The government’s move to reduce the rates of tax deduction at source (TDS) and tax collection at source (TCS) by 25% will benefit investors and professionals by putting more cash in their hands. While this doesn’t bring down the tax liability of taxpayers, it leaves more money with them during the course of the financial year. Indivduals will still have to pay their tax liability -- every quarter, or annually.

The reduction in TDS/TCS is expected to boost cash flows by ~50,000 crore, the finance minister said on Wednesday while announcing the move as part of an economic package aimed at reviving an economy roiled by the Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown enforced to combat it.

Usually, the payee deducts TDS or TCS on behalf of the receiver and deposits it with the government. TDS and TCS are methods that help the government to bring more people into the tax net and prevent tax avoidance.

For instance, in the case of an individual who has a fixed deposit with a bank, the bank deducts 10% TDS every year on the income that the depositor earns by way of interest. If the depositor earns ₹15,000 by way of interest every year, the bank will deduct ₹1,500, and deposit it with the government. Now, banks will deduct ₹1,125. “This way, the lower TDS and TCS will leave more money in the hands of the individuals,” said Naveen Wadhwa, a chartered accountant with taxmann.com.

The lower rates of TDS and TCS will also help those who usually get tax refunds, because if the TDS or TCS deducted is higher than the tax liability of the assessee, they will have to wait until their tax returns are filed and processed. However, Wadhwa cautioned that taxpayers will need to ensure they pay their tax liability, if any, on time.

Depositors are just one example. The biggest beneficiary of this provision are professionals such as chartered accountants, architects, doctors, lawyers, engineers and freelancers, who have their own practice or consultancy. When they receive payment for their service, the payee deducts 10% from the remuneration. Now, the payees will deduct 7.5%. Similarly, tenants who pay a monthly rent of over ₹50,000 need to deduct TDS from the payment. There’s 10% TDS on dividends or when a salaried person makes a withdrawal from employees’ provident fund (EPF) without completing five years of continuous service.

The government also extended the last date for individual tax payers to file income tax returns (ITRs) for assessment year 2020-21, which will now need to be done by November 30 instead of the usual July 31 deadline, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. Besides, the due date for filing ITR for accounts required to be audited has been extended to October 31 instead of the usual September 30. The date for assessment of returns expiring on September 30 has been extended to December 31 and, those expiring on March 31, 2021, to September 30, 2021.

“Due dates for annual filings and compliances have been extended to account for loss of working days due to (the) lockdown,” said Amit Maheshwari, tax partner, AKM Global.

Assessees who must get their accounts audited by CAs are governed under Section 44AB of the Income tax Act, 1961. Taxpayers with sales or turnover exceeding ₹1 crore (₹2 crore under Section 44AD) or receipts from a profession exceed ₹50 lakh during a financial year are required to file the ITR along with an audit report. Besides, assessees covered under Section 44AD, 44AE, 44AF, 44BB or 44BBB (persons claiming that profits and gains from business are lower than the profits and gains computed under these sections) are also required to get their books audited.

Financing the Covid-19 economic packageThe government has been bold. Now don’t worry about inflation or capital flight, use the money financing route

The wait is over. It came in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s fifth address to the nation in two months. The ending of his speech, which incorporated everything from Bharatiya sanskriti (culture) to solar energy, went off like a bomb. Just when most observers of the government’s actions since the coronavirus pandemic had more or less given up on its announcing an economic package, one far greater than expected was announced.

During the silence from the central government, some well-designed packages had been proposed from the outside. One by the Opposition had proposed a package of over ₹5 lakh crore. This concentrated on relief. While relief is vital and something expected from a government that implemented a lockdown without debate, it cannot address the subsequent revival of the economy. A package representing wider concerns and greater heft, amounting to ₹15 lakh crore, came from an industry body. At ₹20 lakh crore, the package announced by the prime minister exceeds even the latter.

Coincidentally, it exactly matches the quantum recommended in a proposal made in an article in these pages on April 15. A difference is that while the latter had proposed a pure fiscal stimulus of ₹20 lakh crore, the prime minister’s package includes the financial implications of measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) so far and some relief offered in March. It is, therefore, a measure of the combined monetary and fiscal policy response to the exigencies of the moment. However, even if the monetary measures are taken to a sum of over ₹4 lakh crore, the package is large indeed.

At close to 10% of GDP, the stimulus is only slightly lower than what has been announced in the United States. The political element in the magnitude of the response cannot be overlooked. The announcement has come at a time when cases of infection in India are not just rising, but rising fast even though the world’s most stringent lockdown, with associated hardship, has been in place for seven weeks. The economy could no longer be ignored.

While the content of the package will slowly emerge, the prime minister’s speech suggests that it is comprehensive, covering most sectors of the economy. However, apart from the possibility that political considerations may end up spreading the outlay thinly, a technical issue remains.

Of the four areas of focus mentioned, liquidity is one; land, labour and laws are the others. Now, while liquidity enhancement by RBI is important, global experience points to its weakness as a method of reviving an economy that is in crisis. A central bank may enhance the capacity of banks through repo operations, but it cannot force them to lend. Judging by the volume of funds the latter have parked with RBI, it may be concluded that they are reluctant to do so, making it the right moment to contemplate negative interest rests on these holdings. The point is that the greater the share of liquidity-enhancing measures in this economic package, the less potent it will be.

After we have acknowledged the boldness of the announcement, we would be interested in knowing how the additional outlay is to be financed. For the moment, the government should seriously consider the money financing route as funding the deficit will raise interest rates. An objection encountered is that the former is inevitably inflationary. Actually, it is not more so than monetary easing implemented by the central bank.

For close to six decades, after the founding of RBI, money financing was routine. In the mid-1950s, there was much hand- wringing that the second five year plan was being deficit-financed. There was some inflation all right, but in seven years after launching the plan, the economy had sloughed-off the colonial rate of growth prevailing for half a century. By the time money financing of the central government’s deficit was discontinued in the 1990s, growth had accelerated two more times. Actually, a period of high inflation came after 2008, well after money financing was discontinued.

But recognising the possibility of inflation, the increased outlay now planned may be spent in tranches, holding expenditure back if there is a spurt in inflation. In addition to inflation, some Indian economists residing overseas have warned of capital flight if the fiscal deficit were to rise. India’s foreign exchange reserves currently exceed the volume of portfolio investment. Anyway, why would foreign institutional investors want to flee India exactly when, with the economic package just announced, it stands a chance of becoming the world’s fastest-growing large economy?

With the technicalities over, the irony of a government that has distanced itself from almost every aspect of the economic policy of early independent India now adopting its very premise is apparent.

Self-reliance was the motif of policies pursued in India in the 1950s, and the country industrialised quickly. In the next decade came the Green Revolution, which set the nation free from food imports. By contrast the “Make in India” initiative of 2014 has been less disruptive. May the freshly minted “Atma Nirbhar Abhiyaan” succeed.

Allocate resources, rationally and efficientlyGive money to state governments, protect the vulnerable sections, and don’t be hostile to businesses

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech on May 12 had two central messages: India will have to learn to live with the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), and India must pivot towards economic recovery.

The recovery strategy will be pursued through a package of fiscal and monetary measures and a reforms package. In some ways, this is an intensification of existing efforts. Since 2017, consumption expenditure financed by the government has grown rapidly — at an average real rate of 10.6%. Big reforms — the Goods and Services Tax (GST), insolvency reform, inflation targeting — have been implemented. India’s rank in the Ease of Doing Business index has improved from 130 in 2016 to 63 in 2019.

But economic growth has slowed down from 8.3% in 2016-17 to 5% in 2019-20. As a percentage of GDP, new project announcements by the private sector were the lowest in 2019-20 since the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy began the data series in 1995-96.

This central paradox of recent years needs to be considered while assessing the recovery strategy. We need to worry about how the policies work, and not just admire the list of announcements.

On fiscal support, three facts are important to consider.

First, no matter which nuclear option is used to expand resource availability, fiscal resources will be scarce. Tax, dividends, spectrum auction and other receipts will fall sharply. A significant part of the expenditure is committed, including ₹7.1 lakh crore of interest expenditure in 2020-21. Expenditure on schemes such as the employment guarantee scheme and food subsidy will increase.

Second, since the crisis is destroying considerable value in the economy, there will be many competing demands on fiscal resources. To avoid a fiscal crisis later, the government must spend its limited resources efficiently.

Third, our expenditure system is plagued with a number of allocative and operational inefficiencies. This crisis necessitates comprehensive expenditure management reforms.

Considering the above will give the government a sense of the budget constraint in which it can support the economy. Given that we may need to live with Covid-19 for another year, there seem to be three good uses of money at this time.

First, the government can help restart economic activity while Covid-19 is still a threat. Many who are rightly worried about attracting the wrath of the virus may stay away from economic activities. We need to lower the subjective probability that people place on getting the virus, and dying from it. This requires intensifying public health measures (screening, testing, quarantine and treatment efforts); expanding public transport deficits to ensure social distancing; and increasing resources for public order. These efforts can reduce the economic costs of the crisis, and preserve economic value. While firms, communities and families can contribute, these efforts will cost fiscal resources. Most of these activities are in the realm of state and local governments, which are resource-starved at the moment. So, a large part of the fiscal package should be given to the states to spend.

Second, while the government has announced relief measures, it is becoming obvious that many vulnerable sections, especially informal and migrant workers, are falling through the cracks.

As the unemployment rate is around 25%, and many households are struggling to make ends meet, there is a duty to ensure relief reaches them in a timely manner. One of the systems that must be reformed urgently is the integrated management of the public distribution system, so that food subsidy can be availed anywhere across the country. More cash transfers may also be required.

Third, since uncertainty is limiting the effectiveness of liquidity measures, they need to be supplemented with fiscal measures. Solutions such as creating a bad bank or doing anticipatory recapitalisation cannot reduce this uncertainty. The government has announced a scheme to give complete guarantees for loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). This leaves little incentive for banks and Non-Banking Financial Companies to identify the firms that are likely to survive the crisis with loan support.

It would be better to give partial guarantees. Similarly, the government needs to be hardnosed about spending money. It is perhaps not a good idea to infuse resources into weaker MSMEs (₹20,000 crore subordinate debt) during such a crisis.

On the reforms package, two points are worth keeping in mind. First, the government should send a message to its enforcement authorities that this is a moment to be pragmatic about their approach to businesses, as they struggle to cope with this crisis. The de jure policy changes are not enough, unless the overall political stance towards businesses and market changes.

In the last few years, there has been a rise in the government’s hostility towards the private sector, as evidenced by the rise in tax disputes and actions of enforcement authorities. Second, the implementation and de facto integrity of reforms matter, as the example of GST shows. Reforms do not automatically lead to good outcomes.

Unless we are careful, we may do more harm than good in our response to this crisis. This is about achieving rational action when fear is all around us. The question for us, as a country, is to paraphrase Rudyard Kipling: Can you keep your head when all about you are losing theirs?

Quad is becoming a key post-Covid coalition

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Quad is becoming a key post-Covid coalition

China’s global standing has taken a hit. New alignments are getting firmed up

14/05/2020

 

Quad-core is part of computer vocabulary, but may equally apply to the heart of a post-coronavirus pandemic world order. The United States (US) has been holding high-level conversations with clusters of governments about the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) and what comes after. India was party to the most recent one, a foreign minister-level meeting, which also included Japan, Australia, South Korea, Brazil and Israel. A regular weekly meeting is now held at the foreign secretary-level, which replaces the last two (Brazil and Israel) with New Zealand and Vietnam. What is common to both are the four members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, generally called the Quad. If this pattern continues, it will indicate Washington and the three other members see as a cornerstone of a post-Covid-19 world.

The Quad is far from being a group with a coherent purpose. What has happened is that all four governments have come to accept that they are strategically committed to the organisation. India’s concerns that Australia lacked a domestic consensus on the Quad is a case in point. China’s global standing is much reduced by Covid-19, a status aggravated by its bullying tactics, and has left a space for this sort of alignment. Of all the members, New Delhi will be least interested in talk of an alliance. It has arguably the best working relationship with Beijing and alone lacks a formal US military relationship. However, this is a foursome that has begun to evolve rapidly into something larger than the sum of its parts and, rightly, is being kept on the top of the stack of geopolitical options.

Boosting the economy

The first part of India’s ₹20 lakh crore economic package was announced on Wednesday — the second, if one factors in the relief to the poor and marginalised announced in late March, and the Reserve Bank’s announcements in March and April — and it provides some indications on what the government hopes to achieve. That the Narendra Modi government would focus on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) was a given. Its first package focused on individuals at the bottom of the pyramid. It was only natural that that it would then turn its focus to enterprises at the bottom of the pyramid. The package offers small enterprises easy credit, guaranteed by the State; support for those weighed down by loans they can’t service; and an equity infusion. It also redefines them, removing a disincentive to grow (and be competitive), and reserves business for them by not allowing global tenders for government purchases less than ₹200 crore. All of these — credit, competitiveness, and an emphasis on the local — flow from the prime minister’s speech on Tuesday.

The extension of three more months (June, July, August) provident fund support for businesses and workers — in companies employing fewer than 100 people, with 90% earning less than ~15,000 a month — is effectively a 24% wage support to small enterprises, and the reduction in the contribution of both employees and employers in other companies to the provident fund (from 12% to 10%) will provide ₹6750 crore of liquidity, split equally between companies and employees. Liquidity was another theme in the prime minister’s speech on Tuesday. The measures also tackled the issue of a looming crisis in the shadow-banking sector by providing it with a fully guaranteed ₹30,000 crore special liquidity scheme, and a ₹45,000 crore partial credit guarantee scheme. There was also a focus on real estate and power, both extremely stressed sectors.

Finally, in an attempt to put more money in the hands of people, the government announced a 25% reduction in tax deducted or collected at source, but only for non-salary payments. This covers everything from interest on fixed deposits to dividend and rent payments, and will result in ₹50,000 crore more flowing into the system (which people will hopefully spend). This is perhaps the best directed part of the measures announced on Wednesday, and the only one that will help the middle class. More such measures, that either cut tax, or actually transfer cash to individuals and businesses, will be needed to spur demand and get the wheels of the economy chugging.