The declining sex ratio will affect us socially, economically and politically. . . .

All things being equal, women would outnumber men, the girl child is more likely to survive in infancy than the boy. But in India, according to a Youth in India report brought out by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation, the sex ratio is declining steadily. From 939 women to 1,000 men in 2011 it is projected to fall to 898 by 2031. This should set off alarm bells in the government, civil society groups and the law. This ratio is man-made through selective sex determination with the aim of getting rid of the girl child, early death due to neglect and infanticide. But there is no reason why things cannot be set right.

The consequences of a falling sex ratio are already evident and none of it is good news. The shortage of women has led to a sharp rise in violence against them. This has led to a situation where, apart from the ingrained son preference, people don’t want girls all the more as they feel that it is difficult to keep them safe. In a study done by the Centre for Social Research in Haryana, fear of violence is a cause for female foeticide. Also the women who produce daughters face much more domestic violence which makes them complicit in getting rid of the girl child. The ugly social practice of polygamy has made a comeback in certain areas as well as forcible marriages of widows and purchasing of brides from poor areas. With the advances in technology, sex determination has become easier very early on in pregnancy with fatal consequences for the girl child.

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With Mannargudi mafia sidelined, AIADMK must focus on governance. . .

The political battle within the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu appears to be heading in the right direction. In the early hours of Wednesday the rebel faction of the party’s MLAs headed by former chief minister O Panneerselvam joined hands with a majority of MLAs in the opposite camp, now headed by current chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, to sideline party general secretary VK Sasikala and TTV Dinakaran, Sasikala’s nephew and the AIADMK’s deputy general secretary.

Since the demise of AIADMK leader and chief minister J Jayalalithaa in December, Sasikala and her family members have taken over the party structure, or what little of it that exists. This was a move widely opposed by the party cadre.

Politically, the continuation of Sasikala or any member of the infamous ‘Mannargudi mafia’ comprising her family members in the AIADMK should be a concern of the party. But because there isn’t a clear church-state separation, it is most likely that party leaders would meddle with the free functioning of a democratically-elected government. Thus, the sidelining of Sasikala and Dinakaran in the AIADMK is a positive move. One could argue that there could be better ways of handling this crisis, but there’s little doubt that the ouster of leaders charged with corruption will send the right message to the rank and file of the party.

It is hoped that with this internal churning the ruling party in the southern state gets a grip on itself and turn its focus on governance. While the ruling party’s legislators were gravitating from one power centre to the other, in the national capital the protest by drought-hit farmers from Tamil Nadu entered its 38th day. The protest is just an indicator of the dire situation in the state. Tamil Nadu is facing a severe drought with alarmingly low levels of water in reservoirs and power outages becoming a regular feature.

Babri demolition case: After 25 years, and two more in the offing, there is no closure on this. . . . . .

It is inexplicable why the process has taken so long and that too in such a landmark case. Much of what happened over the course of the past 25 years has faded from public memory and we know very little of what became of those who lost loved ones and property in the malevolent aftermath of the fall of the mosque. The Babri case is indicative of how justice that has been delayed so much eventually amounts to justice denied. This should occasion a serious review of how badly and ineffectively the criminal justice system works. However, even at this late stage, the fact that the court has said there will be no adjournments is welcome. Ideally, the submission of the Liberhan report should have seen the case concluded. The court’s move may be a setback to the BJP’s veteran leaders. But it is equally a setback for those who have been waiting 25 years for some sort of closure.

The Liberhan commission, which was set up 10 days after the event, clearly stated when it finally submitted its report seven years later that BJP politicians were to blame.. . .

The mills of the gods grind slowly but they grind exceedingly fine is a dictum meant to bring comfort for those who wait long for justice. But in the Babri masjid case, the course of justice while being excruciatingly slow has not been particularly productive so far. The Supreme Court’s decision to reopen the criminal conspiracy charges against senior BJP leaders such as LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharti – Kalyan Singh being a governor has immunity for the duration of his term – comes nearly a quarter of a century after the fateful day on which the ancient mosque in Ayodhya was razed to the ground by frenzied Hindu mobs. This singular act of violence changed India’s political landscape forever, deepening the faultlines of polarisation and communalisation. The deadly riots which followed Mr Advani’s rath yatra brought a militant Hindutva to the fore and claimed the lives of over 2,000 people.

Despite an overwhelming amount of evidence and various commissions, the most notable presided over by Justice Manmohan Singh Liberhan, which was set up 10 days after the event, justice has never been seen to be done in the case. The Liberhan commission clearly stated when it finally submitted its report seven years later that BJP politicians involved were to blame. Yet the case has dragged on and now the Supreme Court has given the proceedings another two years. Many of those named in the cases relating to the destruction of the mosque have died, others have been let off.

It is inexplicable why the process has taken so long and that too in such a landmark case. Much of what happened over the course of the past 25 years has faded from public memory and we know very little of what became of those who lost loved ones and property in the malevolent aftermath of the fall of the mosque. The Babri case is indicative of how justice that has been delayed so much eventually amounts to justice denied. This should occasion a serious review of how badly and ineffectively the criminal justice system works. However, even at this late stage, the fact that the court has said there will be no adjournments is welcome. Ideally, the submission of the Liberhan report should have seen the case concluded. The court’s move may be a setback to the BJP’s veteran leaders. But it is equally a setback for those who have been waiting 25 years for some sort of closure.

Redouble efforts to break the wildlife trafficking value chain, . . .

That the world’s natural heritage is under severe threat is old news. But if you want to know the depth of this global crisis, then do read this latest report from the WWF: Halting Illegal Trade for CITES Species From World Heritage Sites. According to the report, Natural World Heritage sites are threatened by destructive industrial activities, overexploitation and trafficking of CITES species. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) is an international agreement that aims to ensure that transnational trade of wild animals and plants does not threaten their survival.

These natural world heritage sites support large populations of rare plant and animal species, including almost a third of the world’s remaining 3,890 wild tigers and 40% of all African elephants, and function as the last refuge for critically endangered species such as the Javan rhinos and vaquitas. From an Indian perspective, the three world heritage sites that are being plundered are: The Western Ghats, the Great Himalayan National Park and the Khangchendzonga National Park. The illegal harvesting of species not only impacts biodiversity but also has social and economic costs. More than 90% of natural heritage sites support recreation and tourism as well as provide jobs. Many of these benefits are dependent on the presence of CITES-listed species in these sites.

It goes without saying that this cannot go on. As the WWF correctly says, “Governments must redouble their efforts and address the wildlife trafficking value chain.” There must be more collaboration between CITES, the World Heritage Convention and national authorities to lead a more coordinated, comprehensive response to halt wildlife trafficking - from harvesting of species in source countries, transportation through processing destinations, to sales in consumer markets. Closer home, the Indian government should take note of the report and, not dither over giving full legal protection to the country’s world heritage sites such as the Western Ghats.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to try to bring jobs back to American workers and revamp the H-1B visa guest worker programme.... . . .

When it comes to immigration stories, the United States government’s decision to raise the salary requirements of H-1B visa workers have received the most attention among Indians. Contemporaneously, Australia and New Zealand have also announced plans to slash the number of visas available to high-skilled temporary workers. Similar policy moves are being considered or are being carried out by many other countries, largely in the developed world.

None of this should come as a surprise. High-skilled worker migration has generally been a phenomenon of advanced economies – and most of these are suffering from anaemic growth, weak job creation and stagnant middle-class incomes. As has happened before, poor economics undermines political support for this particularly category of visas. The parameters by which H-1B visas been issued have kept shifting over nearly three decades, depending on the political economy of the US at the time.

There are demands that New Delhi should treat this as a litmus test of the bilateral relationship and make H-1B visas a point of contention with the Trump administration. This would be a mistake. A country’s immigration policy, in effect its control of its own borders, is among the most sovereign-based decisions of any government. Washington will rightly reject any attempt to be told to who and whom it can issue a visa to – as would New Delhi if it was in a similar position. The larger geopolitical and economic drivers in the Indo-US relationship are much more important than the US’s decision to raise the cost of a visa. In fact, the preservation of the steady flow of legal Indian migration to the US, a human bridge which has benefited both countries, is of greater importance than the H-1B niche.

Having said this, there can be no doubt that such visas have a larger-than-life profile with the Indian public because of their association with the successful software services sector. But the so-called Mode 4 model that drove the H-1B visa is slowly dying thanks to automation and an increasing preference in Silicon Valley for in-house software expertise. The Indian software industry is within its rights to lobby the US Congress for to save the H-1B visa, but the Indian government should be wary of investing too much diplomatic capital in what is likely to a quixotic campaign. There are much more important issues to be worked out with the Trump administration. New Delhi could have fixed skilled worker visas with some of these countries as part a free trade agreement – as other countries have done. But since India is allergic to such agreements, that was never a serious option. Migration is a door that slams shut when even a small breeze blows. Right now, a gale is blowing and India must wait for it to wane.

Thanking you..

India must play its part in the global trading system, not shy away from it. . . . .

India is among the countries most vulnerable to rising global protectionism warns the most recent Global Financial Stability Report of the International Monetary Fund. Most of the demand that drives the international trading system still remains in the developed countries and as they raise the drawbridge against imports, the biggest losers will be emerging economies like China, India and South Africa.

The knock on effect on India will be not merely in terms of falling exports. It will also be in increased financial pressure on the balance sheets of local corporations and, therefore, the non-performing asset problems in the banking sector. And among six emerging economies that the IMF looked at, India has by far the most vulnerable banking sector.India is among the countries most vulnerable to rising global protectionism warns the most recent Global Financial Stability Report of the International Monetary Fund. Most of the demand that drives the international trading system still remains in the developed countries and as they raise the drawbridge against imports, the biggest losers will be emerging economies like China, India and South Africa.

The knock on effect on India will be not merely in terms of falling exports. It will also be in increased financial pressure on the balance sheets of local corporations and, therefore, the non-performing asset problems in the banking sector. And among six emerging economies that the IMF looked at, India has by far the most vulnerable banking sector.

The IMF report does not dwell on what can be done to salvage the global trading system. But it is an issue to which the Narendra Modi government should give some thought. India is a nation that has long been gripped by export pessimism, a term applied to countries who believe they cannot compete and opt out of international trade.

Yet almost all the countries who have pulled themselves out of poverty and into the ranks of high-income states have done so on the back of international trade.

The Modi government has run away from negotiating even the smallest free trade arrangements, ripped apart existing foreign investment treaties and run interference at multilateral trading talks.

This is unfortunate. New Delhi’s reluctance to more actively support the multilateral trading system – and in fact act as a spoiler to its success – is a remarkably short-sighted policy. India’s future growth continues to heavily depend on foreign investment and trade. Also the ability of India’s homegrown companies to become global players is tied strongly to their success in tapping the larger world market.

The Modi government’s reform measures, like “ease of doing business” and the Goods and Service Tax, will be important in making India globally more competitive.

Perhaps the government plans to re-engage the international trading system when it feels domestic industry is competitive enough. That may be a long time coming: Protectionism breeds mediocrity. Worse, there may not be much of a trading system to rejoin if countries like India are not prepared to lend it support when it is under attack.