Only pragmatism and prudence can lift the telecom industry from its current troubles

 It cannot possibly get messier than this. The telecom industry is in turmoil unable to pay up its dues as per the Supreme Court verdict on adjusted gross revenues delivered in October last; the Court is aghast that its order is not being complied with; and then there is the government torn between revenue considerations, the need to uphold sanctity of contracts, and ensuring that one of the players does not go under in the process of honouring the verdict. Faced with the wrath of the Court, Bharti Airtel paid ₹10,000 crore on Monday with the promise of paying the rest before mid-March when the court will hear the case next. Vodafone Idea, the one hit the most by the judgment, on Monday sought more time to pay up but the Court was in no mood to humour the company and refused to hear the plea. The company eventually paid ₹2,500 crore by the evening. The two companies, as indeed the others in the industry, have only themselves to blame for the predicament that they find themselves in now. They could have paid up their annual dues over the years — which were not material in relation to their respective turnovers — under protest even as they litigated the case in the top court. That would have obviated the need to pay interest and penalties now which are higher than the actual dues. At the very least, they ought to have provided for the liability in their balance sheets as a contingency, which they failed to do.

While they have to pay the price for this now, what can be done to ensure that the blow is not fatal? If Vodafone shuts shop, not only will the industry be reduced to a duopoly, with all the attendant consequences for customers but it will also lead to loss of about 15,000 direct jobs and several thousand more indirect ones. Worse, the cascading effect will be felt across the economy as lenders face the consequences of the company going bankrupt — non performing assets will rise. Telecom equipment suppliers may also go down as their dues will not be paid. And what happens to the 212 million Vodafone subscribers? It is doubtful whether the other two players can absorb them all. The industry is critical to the government’s plans for a digital economy not to mention its revenues, including from the upcoming 5G spectrum auctions. The government has to, therefore, examine what it can do to save the situation without disrespecting the Court’s verdict. Legislation to offer a staggered payment schedule that ensures that the net present value of future payments is equal to the dues is one option experts are suggesting. There could be other options that can be considered in conjunction with the industry, including reducing the adjusted gross revenue-based licence fees and spectrum usage charges. Whatever route it chooses to soften the blow, the government will have to get the Court on its side at the next hearing on March 17. The need of the hour is pragmatism laced with prudence on all sides to clean up this royal mess.

Only pragmatism and prudence can lift the telecom industry from its current troubles

It cannot possibly get messier than this. The telecom industry is in turmoil unable to pay up its dues as per the Supreme Court verdict on adjusted gross revenues delivered in October last; the Court is aghast that its order is not being complied with; and then there is the government torn between revenue considerations, the need to uphold sanctity of contracts, and ensuring that one of the players does not go under in the process of honouring the verdict. Faced with the wrath of the Court, Bharti Airtel paid ₹10,000 crore on Monday with the promise of paying the rest before mid-March when the court will hear the case next. Vodafone Idea, the one hit the most by the judgment, on Monday sought more time to pay up but the Court was in no mood to humour the company and refused to hear the plea. The company eventually paid ₹2,500 crore by the evening. The two companies, as indeed the others in the industry, have only themselves to blame for the predicament that they find themselves in now. They could have paid up their annual dues over the years — which were not material in relation to their respective turnovers — under protest even as they litigated the case in the top court. That would have obviated the need to pay interest and penalties now which are higher than the actual dues. At the very least, they ought to have provided for the liability in their balance sheets as a contingency, which they failed to do.

While they have to pay the price for this now, what can be done to ensure that the blow is not fatal? If Vodafone shuts shop, not only will the industry be reduced to a duopoly, with all the attendant consequences for customers but it will also lead to loss of about 15,000 direct jobs and several thousand more indirect ones. Worse, the cascading effect will be felt across the economy as lenders face the consequences of the company going bankrupt — non performing assets will rise. Telecom equipment suppliers may also go down as their dues will not be paid. And what happens to the 212 million Vodafone subscribers? It is doubtful whether the other two players can absorb them all. The industry is critical to the government’s plans for a digital economy not to mention its revenues, including from the upcoming 5G spectrum auctions. The government has to, therefore, examine what it can do to save the situation without disrespecting the Court’s verdict. Legislation to offer a staggered payment schedule that ensures that the net present value of future payments is equal to the dues is one option experts are suggesting. There could be other options that can be considered in conjunction with the industry, including reducing the adjusted gross revenue-based licence fees and spectrum usage charges. Whatever route it chooses to soften the blow, the government will have to get the Court on its side at the next hearing on March 17. The need of the hour is pragmatism laced with prudence on all sides to clean up this royal mess.

Afghanistan is no closer to peace after the declaration of Ashraf Ghani as the President

The Afghan Independent Election Commission’s much-delayed announcement that President Ashraf Ghani is the winner of the September 28 Presidential election is expected to deepen the political crisis in the war-torn country. That it took almost five months to declare the official results — he secured a narrow victory with 50.64% of votes against his main opponent Abdullah Abdullah’s 39.52% — itself points to the seriousness of the crisis. Mr. Abdullah has called the results fraudulent and vowed to form a parallel government. If he does so, it would undermine the already feeble Afghan administration whose writ does not stretch beyond the main urban centres. For the Afghan voter, this is a déjà vu moment. Five years ago, Mr. Ghani was declared winner of the election but Mr. Abdullah refused to accept the result. The then U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry, brokered a power-sharing agreement, which allowed Mr. Ghani to take over the presidency and made Mr. Abdullah the government Chief Executive. And throughout the five years, they were at odds with each other, while the Taliban steadily expanded across the country’s hinterlands and stepped up attacks on its city centres. Unsurprisingly, only less than a fourth of registered voters turned up in September, raising questions about faith in the whole exercise.

Worse, the infighting comes at a time when the U.S. is near a Taliban agreement. Initial reports suggest that U.S. President Trump has given the go-ahead to its signing if the insurgents reduce violence for a seven-day test period. The deal would see the U.S.’s Afghan troop pullback, winding down America’s longest war and leaving the Taliban and the Afghan government to start direct talks for a final settlement. The problem, however, is that even with an American troops presence, the Afghan government had never been able to take control of the security situation. The U.S. excluded the government from its direct talks with the Taliban as the insurgents do not see the government as Afghanistan’s legitimate rulers. U.S. withdrawal would invariably weaken the government, aiding the Taliban even before the talks start. The disputed poll results and chronic political infighting would weaken the administration further. How will the government defend the Constitution or any of the post-Taliban achievements if it is going to negotiate with a resurgent Taliban from a position of such weakness? All involved parties in the conflict seem to be missing the big picture. The U.S. just wants to get out of a lost war. Mr. Ghani wants to retain his presidency. Mr. Abdullah may want to make sure there is power sharing with the Opposition. What is lost in these narrow, self-interest-driven moves is the collective quest for defeating the extremists and rebuilding Afghanistan.

Bird diversity in India must be protected for cultural and ecological reasons

Birds are under increasing pressure from human activity, struggling to survive as habitat loss, pesticides, hunting and trapping for the pet trade push them closer to the edge. Once-thriving endemic or migrant bird populations have been decimated over the past quarter century in India, as the scientific report, State of India’s Birds 2020, points out. The analysis, produced by 10 globally influential organisations, is a major addition to ornithology. It is a rare synthesis of scientific understanding and citizen-led initiatives, using over 10 million observations made by over 15,500 bird watchers, achieving what would be difficult for small groups of researchers working alone. What emerges is an alarming picture of long-term declines of several species for which enough data is available over a 25-year period, as well as a more recent trend of annual losses. Data inadequacies have led to the exclusion of many species. Some bird species assessed as ‘least concern’ by the IUCN, were found in peril in India. Remarkably, in spite of having a rich ornithological tradition, only 261 species out of 867 spotted qualified for a full analysis, based on robust long-term data; 52% of them are now classified as being of ‘high concern’. The heartening news is that sparrow numbers remain stable overall, although the bird has largely disappeared from some of the big cities. But the Western Ghats offer bleak prospects, and the abundance index of 12 endemic species there has dropped by 75% since 2000. The fortunes of the Nilgiri Pipit, Nilgiri Thrush and several Sholakilis are tied to the survival of the high shola forest-grasslands. Equally critical to some species, such as the Hodgson’s bushchat wintering away from Mongolia, is the protection of terai grasslands in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and the northeastern States.

India’s conservation community expects the Environment Ministry, which released the status report at the global conference of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals at Gandhinagar, Gujarat, to secure a future for birds. Resolute steps to protect forests and other habitats will confer multiple benefits, protecting other myriad species too. The latest report is refreshing as it taps into citizen science for good data and should serve as a foundation for further collaborative work. It is essential to revive the Great Indian Bustard, now pushed to precariously low numbers. Coursers and floricans need help with their delicate habitat, as do neglected small birds such as the Green Munia that is widely trapped. Bird diversity makes India, Kerala in particular, a birdwatching destination. That variety must be protected not just for cultural reasons, but to improve the health of forests, wetlands, open country habitat and high mountains.

thanking you so much.

namo namo shiva shankar

Pretchari Param Kari

Dharma Chari mahatapa

He sanathan sarbanasan

Viswamitra mahayogi

Maha Rishi abhoyankar.

Namo namo shiva Shankar.

Ravfirochan sarbo Sadhan

Bhaswasayi dirgho rupo samsanei namo namo.

Namo namo shiva Shankar.

Rudra mantra

Rudra Rudra Maharudra

Shiva Shankar parayankar

Bhutnath Mahakal abhoya abhoyankar

Namo namo shiva Shankar.

Namo namo shiva Shankar.

Yogi hitkari sabki 

Satya tum hi ho

Nityo tum ho

Ugra ho kapaleshwar.

Namo namo shiva Shankar.

Biswakarta .bigyan 

Dharma dhenu sare Sadhan 

Bhutbhawan nath ho

Namo namo shiva Sankar.

Quiet, for now: On trade deal between US and China

The phase one trade deal U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He signed on Wednesday is but a temporary truce that leaves the key issues of the trade dispute unresolved. The pact that Mr. Trump has touted as a step toward creating a fairer and reciprocal partnership still leaves intact nearly three-fourths of punitive tariffs slapped on China since the onset of the trade rift in 2017. Even so, the limited terms the two largest economies agreed upon sets the political stage for further bilateral negotiations and to stem a further deterioration in the global growth scenario. China is to buy $200-billion in goods and services in the coming two years — purchases in 2017, were valued at some $187-billion. The proposed increase in exports is believed to be unprecedented in U.S. trade history and caused speculation on the impact these steep targets could have on China’s other trading partners. Agricultural exports form the smallest proportion of the latest offers relative to manufactured goods and services. This has been an important area of concern for the American farming sector ever since China imposed retaliatory tariffs on soyabean imports from the U.S. But Beijing has promised to open its markets in dairy products, poultry, fish and allied sectors. Whereas China has given assurances to remove barriers for American banking, insurance and other financial services, Washington would be more wary of guarantees on IP protection and alleged forced technology transfers; the last two have been among the more contentious aspects of the trade dispute, as seen in the attacks on Chinese telecom manufacturer Huawei. Separately, Washington has invoked provisions on threats to its national security to punish adversaries, an exceptional measure in the international trading arena. Crucially, the timing of the package enables Mr. Trump to claim some success in narrowing the trade deficit with China ahead of his November re-election bid.

Mr. Trump has said that negotiations on a phase two agreement would begin immediately and even hinted that he could travel to Beijing. However, questions over government control of China’s state-owned firms and industrial subsidies — at the core the bilateral dispute — are not expected to be resolved until after the 2020 U.S. Presidential elections. In parallel is the agreement to revive an erstwhile Obama-era mechanism for economic dialogue that was abandoned under the Trump administration. The step signals hope just as Washington’s decision this week to withdraw the tag of a currency manipulator upon Beijing, accusing it of artificially devaluing the renminbi to gain competitive advantage. The new forum could set the tone to address sensitive issues that have dogged Beijing’s relations with the U.S. and its allies after China joined the WTO.

thanking you so much.