The indispensability of labour in reviving India’s economic engine

Migrant workers are like nowhere people. Yet, they are everywhere. From high-rises to highways, who builds them? It is a silent army of migrant workers, working day and night with no job security, no social safety net, and poor living conditions — yet, theirs are not the names we see on the billboards or the foundation stones of these shining symbols of India’s economic progress. From domestic helps to drivers, from the vegetable seller to the roadside food stall or kirana store owners — their names are not on any payroll or pension plans or tax registers and yet, remove them and life in urban and semi-urban areas would be paralysed. Like now.

Invisible, taken for granted, they are treated with indifference in the best of times and callousness and cruelty in the worst, as the spectacle of migrant workers walking hundreds of miles on hot and dusty roads to go back home showed. It evoked the words from the Woody Guthrie song, “I ain’t got no home in this world anymore”. For some of them, this proved to be literally and tragically true, whether due to death or the hostile reception they faced back home. They left their homes in search of a better life, to support their families back home. Yet, their adopted homes did not own them up when the chips were down.

Perhaps the human tragedy involved here will not move everyone equally. Even if the human plight does move us, some may take a more pragmatic point of view — what matters most is dealing with the public health crisis first, and then restarting the engine of growth.

Now, what is this engine of growth? You might think that it is capital accumulation — new machines and factories — and productivity growth — better technology and organisational methods. But capital cannot generate output on its own — it needs labour. In a country like India, it comes mainly through migrant labourers from rural areas. The engine of growth runs on the fuel of migrant labour, which moves from less productive sectors like agriculture to more productive sectors like manufacturing and services. Without this fuel, the engine will sputter and stop because of upward pressure on wages in the limited pool of local labour markets.

What drives the flow of migration is the prospect of better opportunities in urban areas. Interestingly, research on migration shows that there is, in fact, significant under-migration compared to the potential labour supply from rural areas. The main factor cited is risk-aversion. While average incomes are lower in rural areas, villagers can eke out a living easily and rely on strong informal safety nets based on social networks. Very poor households may be unwilling to incur the financial and psychological costs of migration and brave the subsistence risk of things not panning out. The horrifying experience of migrant workers during this crisis will only magnify such fears and reinforce the tendency towards under-migration.

What does this imply for the post-lockdown period? Could we simply press a button and restart the engine of growth, as Ben Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chairman, seems to suggest for the United States (US) economy? Bernanke said that the current economic crisis is closer to a major snowstorm or a natural disaster than to a 1930s-style Depression, which came from problems of human institutions and monetary and financial shocks. So, he has predicted a sharp recession and a quick recovery for the US.

Whether Bernanke’s prediction about the US is right remains to be seen, but his logic does not apply to a developing country like India where informal institutions and social networks play a much larger role in the economy than in a developed country. While trust and reputation are important in every economic sphere, these are the only currency in the informal sector where there are no contracts and regulations, and hiring is based on word-of-mouth referrals (think, for example, how domestic workers are hired).

Therefore, social networks play a big role as reputation in the community acts as a bond against potential malfeasance or low productivity. But trust takes time to build, as do social networks once they are disrupted. Therefore, the assumption that after the crisis subsides, things will return to normal and an unlimited supply of labour will flow in from the countryside is unrealistic. Wages will have to rise significantly, and networks that underpin informal labour markets will have to reform for the process to resume.

Employers are clearly seeing the writing on the wall. Therefore, we see attempts like the construction industry lobbying a state government to cancel trains to stop migrant workers from heading back home.

The same logic of the market that is often invoked to say there are no free lunches when talking about relief packages for the poor, also says the only way to induce labour to work is through improvement in wages and living and work conditions, not coercion. And given that 90% of the Indian workforce is in the informal sector with no job security or benefits, the safety net provided by the government must be strengthened to attract migrant workers back after this ordeal.

At the minimum, this would involve making ration cards portable so that migrant workers are covered by the public distribution system (PDS) and committing significantly more resources (than in the relief package announced earlier) to direct cash transfers and to the PDS. There are no free lunches. The economy will not move forward unless the migrant workers come back.

Maitreesh Ghatak is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and director, Development Economics Programme, STICERD

Covid-19: A call to save the planetChina’s irresponsibility has led to this crisis. So has the myopia of our political, business leaders

Valmik Thapar

Our world lies torn and shattered, and all because of an invisible virus that probably was let loose by a horseshoe bat. In our understanding of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), one critical factor stands out. The destruction of wildlife and wildlife habitats led to its creation.

It could be from Wuhan’s horrific wet wildlife markets or experimenting with bats in a Wuhan laboratory or destroying bat habitats that led to a crisis where millions are infected and hundreds of thousands are dead. Intermediary species like the pangolin might have helped in mutating this virus and, over the last decade, humans have left no stone unturned to decimate pangolins and smuggle them live into wildlife markets. They could very easily have been the intermediary species.

China is hugely responsible for the demand and needs to be shamed across the world. I squarely place blame on its actions. I watched closely its enormous role in the tiger crisis that enveloped India from the 1990s for two decades. I watched its increasing presence in Africa and the resultant decline in Africa’s wildlife. At many international meetings for the last 30 years, it was warned to end its illegal wildlife trafficking and markets. It paid no heed. Many wildlife warriors fought to prevent China from this highly destructive role.

But China, as a global economic power, cared little and plunged on regardless in its craze for wild animal parts and associated medicine. As far as I am concerned, this virus is a result of this. This virus is also a result of the actions of all those political and business leaders who did not care. All those who scoffed at and mocked nature’s warriors, hurled abuse on those who served both wildlife and nature.

The disrespect that many who serve nature have suffered is shocking. Many of us are now angry and unforgiving. Our warnings over the last 50 years have come true. We have tirelessly strived to prioritise the protection of our natural world. Very few who made policy or took decisions listened. Today, they should be drowning in guilt. Big business has failed nature. Few provide grants to protect it. Corporate leaders prefer to remain ignorant of the ways of nature. Now they have been hit where it hurts most. Trillions of dollars lost, and economies at a standstill. If we wake up from this nightmare, will they learn? Will they shed their arrogance? The less said about our politicians and bureaucrats, the better.

I remember how hard I tried to get Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh to create a department of forests and wildlife (which did not exist in the ministry of environment and forests) so that this essential sector was governed properly. The idea was to create a separate ministry over time and allow a ministry of environment and climate change to be independent of it. He agreed with my logic, (10 years ago), and instructed that it should be done. But a bunch of secretaries vetoed him. PM Narendra Modi has not held one meeting of the National Board of Wildlife in seven years. Nobody cares. They still do not realise that the virus they deal with originates in wildlife and is unleashed because of poor governance. They do not realise that India is in dire straits, the economy a mess and life disrupted because of how we deal with the natural world and its myriad species.

Prime ministers, ministers, political leaders, bureaucrats, business leaders, and society must be educated, and fast, as nature’s time bomb is ticking. This coronavirus is a warning shot over the bow. Next time around, nature will let loose a virus that will be much more virulent.

This global pandemic could have come much earlier. It did not because of the tireless service of both nature warriors and wildlife warriors. These people come from all walks of life, in villages, towns and cities and spend their time passionately defending nature. Without them, we would have no world to live in. They provide the most essential service to the nation, but aren’t recognised or respected. More often than not, they are relegated to oblivion. We need to remember all of them today and salute them.

Who are these people? They are, among others, the 150,000 forest officers and forest guards. About 100,000 are scientists, wildlife watchers, wildlife travel promoters, wildlife hotel creators, wildlife photographers, wildlife filmmakers, writers, conservationists, naturalists, village volunteers and non-governmental organisations. We need to celebrate them when we are out of this crisis. The PM must brainstorm with them. You cannot run an economy without a healthy natural world. This virus reveals how easily economic collapse comes. Leaders of the world will have to put forests, wildlife and the environment on the top of the agenda if they do not want to be plagued with more disease and death.

Economic recoveries must be green. No longer can we harm the natural wealth of our country or any country. This virus from Wuhan has proved that it can bring the world to its knees. That is the interdependence of the world today. Healing nature must be our call sign. Our leadership across this planet must wake up to a new era where life, the economics of it, the design of it are non-wasteful and non-exploitative and tempered with great respect for nature.

Preventing global warming and the climate crisis must be immediate priorities. This virus has revealed how our planet is vulnerable and without healing nature, we, as a human race, will die. Let’s learn our lessons and act hand-in-hand with the natural world. We need an educated and enlightened media that does its homework. We need urgent global meetings of world leaders on forests and wildlife. We need global decisions to close wet markets and wildlife trade. We need to find non-invasive solutions for our future. Enough of diplomacy; it is time to call a spade a spade. Enough of G7 and G20 meets. They need to be re-strategised in light of what has happened.

Our mission today must be to create key strategies to protect natural ecosystems, wilderness and all the life that abounds in it. If we do not achieve this mission, there is no hope for our planet’s future

Enable Make in India to become the new normalIndian entrepreneurs recalibrated to produce vital supplies to combat Covid-19, showing their potential

The coronavirus disease (Covid-19) crisis has put the whole world on notice. It has highlighted the need for efficient responses to urgently required goods and services. Perhaps never before has there been as much urgency in ensuring the supply of equipment crucial for frontline workers, essential services providers, and the population at large, in such a short time. With the massive demand for personal protection equipment (PPE), surgical and N95 masks, ventilators and testing kits, it has been necessary to look for solutions domestically. And Indian entrepreneurs have stepped up to the plate, and fulfilled the demands through innovation, repurposing, and bolstering the production of essential goods.

This is why, going by the response from Indian companies to the pandemic, there is clear evidence that Make in India can be a driving force. Building on the catalysing effect of this concept, the next step is to provide a dependable regulatory framework, and incentivise similar synergies to allow Make in India across sectors become the new normal.

As evident from the successes in the health sector, Indian companies and entrepreneurs can recalibrate, repurpose and become world beaters.

The manner in which vitally important supplies to combat Covid-19 was made available is a testament to the potential of Make in India. India required 75,000 ventilators, of which just under 61,000 needed to be ordered. Nine domestic manufacturers were chosen to supply almost 60,000 of those, with just one importer being selected for the remaining 1,000. Of the domestic suppliers, Sanray Technologies and Bharat Electronics were chosen for 30,000 ventilators, while AMTZ and AgVa each for the supply of 13,500 and 10,000 respectively. A similar situation is being witnessed in PPEs, where for a total requirement of over 20 million PPEs, 35 domestic manufacturers have stepped up to fulfil the demand, supplying 13 million PPEs. The domestic manufacturing of PPEs has grown exponentially. For masks, of the 27.2 million required, three domestic manufacturers are providing 12.8 million. The production of domestically manufactured testing kits, both reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and rapid antibody testing, has been ramped up. This capability will enhance India’s daily testing capability. Overall, these are huge opportunities for Indian companies to prove their mettle.

Indian companies are also at the frontline of developing a vaccine for Covid-19. Between six to eight Indian companies have reached the development phase. Zydus Cadila is said to be working on two vaccines, while Serum Institute, Biological E, Bharat Biotech, Indian Immunologicals, and Mynvax are also in the process of developing a vaccine. Biocon, a leading Indian biopharmaceutical company, is developing two new generation repurposed drugs for treatment and an antibody diagnostic kit. It is also working on a vaccine project with Seagull Biosolutions.

Several entrepreneurs have made inroads in helping fight the pandemic.

Biodesign Innovations Labs, which makes automated versions of low-cost manual ventilators, tied up with Remidio, a manufacturer of ophthalmological devices to ramp up production from 400 ventilators per month to 15,000 over the next couple of months. AgVa Healthcare tied up with Maruti Suzuki in a collaboration arrangement to develop ventilators, and potentially make 20,000 ventilators a month, up from its earlier production of 300 per month.

Saral Designs repurposed from making sanitary napkins to manufacturing three-ply surgical masks, and in collaboration with the Mahindra Group, has raised production to 30,000 masks per day that they are sending to state governments through Mahindra’s Corporate Social Responsibility programme. Qure.ai, has used Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning to develop a solution through screening chest X-rays for abnormalities in seconds, through door-to-door testing, acting as the first point of reference on who needs to be tested for Covid-19.

Staqu Technologies, an AI-based contactless monitoring application, has a built-in provision for thermal cameras which can take body temperature from a distance of up to 10 metres. Asimov Robotics has introduced the “Karmi-bot”, a robot intended for isolation wards in hospitals, with the ability to carry medicines and food trays and conduct video calls with caregivers, among other essential features.

And these are just a few of the innovators who are taking the fight to the pandemic.

The collaboration between India’s best corporate entities and the brightest young start-up entrepreneurs during one of the world’s most critical periods is arguably one of the most positive takeaways for India’s future as a global powerhouse. India’s focus on fostering and supporting the startup ecosystem is a vital input towards becoming a $5 trillion economy. Collaboration, innovation, and the ability to recalibrate and repurpose bodes well for Make in India to be accelerated. If the results are so encouraging in the health sector, then with adequate support and a robust regulatory framework, this can be replicated across most sectors, helping India become self-sufficient and the nerve centre for growth and capability. There is no better time than now for this movement to take off.

Covid-19: A call to save the planetChina’s irresponsibility has led to this crisis. So has the myopia of our political, business leaders

Our world lies torn and shattered, and all because of an invisible virus that probably was let loose by a horseshoe bat. In our understanding of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), one critical factor stands out. The destruction of wildlife and wildlife habitats led to its creation.

It could be from Wuhan’s horrific wet wildlife markets or experimenting with bats in a Wuhan laboratory or destroying bat habitats that led to a crisis where millions are infected and hundreds of thousands are dead. Intermediary species like the pangolin might have helped in mutating this virus and, over the last decade, humans have left no stone unturned to decimate pangolins and smuggle them live into wildlife markets. They could very easily have been the intermediary species.

China is hugely responsible for the demand and needs to be shamed across the world. I squarely place blame on its actions. I watched closely its enormous role in the tiger crisis that enveloped India from the 1990s for two decades. I watched its increasing presence in Africa and the resultant decline in Africa’s wildlife. At many international meetings for the last 30 years, it was warned to end its illegal wildlife trafficking and markets. It paid no heed. Many wildlife warriors fought to prevent China from this highly destructive role.

But China, as a global economic power, cared little and plunged on regardless in its craze for wild animal parts and associated medicine. As far as I am concerned, this virus is a result of this. This virus is also a result of the actions of all those political and business leaders who did not care. All those who scoffed at and mocked nature’s warriors, hurled abuse on those who served both wildlife and nature.

The disrespect that many who serve nature have suffered is shocking. Many of us are now angry and unforgiving. Our warnings over the last 50 years have come true. We have tirelessly strived to prioritise the protection of our natural world. Very few who made policy or took decisions listened. Today, they should be drowning in guilt. Big business has failed nature. Few provide grants to protect it. Corporate leaders prefer to remain ignorant of the ways of nature. Now they have been hit where it hurts most. Trillions of dollars lost, and economies at a standstill. If we wake up from this nightmare, will they learn? Will they shed their arrogance? The less said about our politicians and bureaucrats, the better.

I remember how hard I tried to get Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan Singh to create a department of forests and wildlife (which did not exist in the ministry of environment and forests) so that this essential sector was governed properly. The idea was to create a separate ministry over time and allow a ministry of environment and climate change to be independent of it. He agreed with my logic, (10 years ago), and instructed that it should be done. But a bunch of secretaries vetoed him. PM Narendra Modi has not held one meeting of the National Board of Wildlife in seven years. Nobody cares. They still do not realise that the virus they deal with originates in wildlife and is unleashed because of poor governance. They do not realise that India is in dire straits, the economy a mess and life disrupted because of how we deal with the natural world and its myriad species.

Prime ministers, ministers, political leaders, bureaucrats, business leaders, and society must be educated, and fast, as nature’s time bomb is ticking. This coronavirus is a warning shot over the bow. Next time around, nature will let loose a virus that will be much more virulent.

This global pandemic could have come much earlier. It did not because of the tireless service of both nature warriors and wildlife warriors. These people come from all walks of life, in villages, towns and cities and spend their time passionately defending nature. Without them, we would have no world to live in. They provide the most essential service to the nation, but aren’t recognised or respected. More often than not, they are relegated to oblivion. We need to remember all of them today and salute them.

Who are these people? They are, among others, the 150,000 forest officers and forest guards. About 100,000 are scientists, wildlife watchers, wildlife travel promoters, wildlife hotel creators, wildlife photographers, wildlife filmmakers, writers, conservationists, naturalists, village volunteers and non-governmental organisations. We need to celebrate them when we are out of this crisis. The PM must brainstorm with them. You cannot run an economy without a healthy natural world. This virus reveals how easily economic collapse comes. Leaders of the world will have to put forests, wildlife and the environment on the top of the agenda if they do not want to be plagued with more disease and death.

Economic recoveries must be green. No longer can we harm the natural wealth of our country or any country. This virus from Wuhan has proved that it can bring the world to its knees. That is the interdependence of the world today. Healing nature must be our call sign. Our leadership across this planet must wake up to a new era where life, the economics of it, the design of it are non-wasteful and non-exploitative and tempered with great respect for nature.

Preventing global warming and the climate crisis must be immediate priorities. This virus has revealed how our planet is vulnerable and without healing nature, we, as a human race, will die. Let’s learn our lessons and act hand-in-hand with the natural world. We need an educated and enlightened media that does its homework. We need urgent global meetings of world leaders on forests and wildlife. We need global decisions to close wet markets and wildlife trade. We need to find non-invasive solutions for our future. Enough of diplomacy; it is time to call a spade a spade. Enough of G7 and G20 meets. They need to be re-strategised in light of what has happened.

Our mission today must be to create key strategies to protect natural ecosystems, wilderness and all the life that abounds in it. If we do not achieve this mission, there is no hope for our planet’s future.

Valmik Thapar has worked for 45 years with wild tigers. He has also written 30 books on India’s tigers and wildlife

The views expressed are personal

The challenge of lockdown 3.0Citizens must know that the right to step out comes with duties

The first day of lockdown 3.0 has shown the challenges involved in the graded opening up of the country. On Friday, the Union government came up with a complex order — which categorised the country into red, green and orange zones; prohibited a set of activities nationally; and allowed other activities, in varying degrees, in the different zones. This made sense. India needed a calibrated loosening up to ensure that there wasn’t an immediate surge in cases.

But for this approach to succeed, there were two prerequisites. The first was proper bureaucratic implementation — and this was always going to be difficult because of the inability of local police officials or district authorities to distinguish between what was permitted and prohibited, and who to allow and who to stop. But the second, more important prerequisite was citizens exercising a high degree of responsibility.

On day 1, this was missing. The most egregious reflection of this was in liquor shops. People lined up in hundreds, often without masks, jostling with each other, to buy cases of alcohol. The police authorities had to, in some cases, resort to lathi-charge or close shops. Liquor is an important source of revenue for state governments. Given the dire straits of public finances, as well as popular demand, opening stores made sense. But if citizens behave with such irresponsibility, then don’t rule out a revision of rules in the future. In times of the pandemic, it is not just about drinking responsibly — but also purchasing it responsibly. It is about maintaining social distancing and knowing that the right to step out comes with responsibilities.

Handwara: India must act stronglyDefeat Pakistan’s designs to inflict

Even the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) fails before Pakistan’s obsession with inflicting terror against India. The Handwara encounter, in which five Indian soldiers and a policeman were killed fighting a militant cell, is a reminder that through the pandemic, it has been business as usual along the Line of Control and in Kashmir. The past few months have seen a steady exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani forces along the border, a parallel infiltration of militants, and concomitant terrorist activity in Kashmir. Rawalpindi’s recent rebranding of the existing militant groups in Kashmir as “The Resistance Front” does nothing to disguise the fact what is happening continues to be State-sponsored terrorism with Rawalpindi’s favourite Lashkar-e-Taiba at the forefront of the violence.

Pakistan has been ratcheting up violence in and along Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370. This, despite failing to persuade the international community to force India to reverse its decision, and the looming threat of sanctions by the United Nations Financial Action Task Force. It is evident to everyone that India is not going to change what was passed without opposition in Parliament, and which is now engraved in the Constitution. Pakistan knows this too, but what it is seeking to do is make India pay a price for effectively cutting Islamabad out of the future of the Valley. Pakistan should know that incidents like Handwara, however tragic, will do nothing to bend India’s will.

India laid out a potential new path for Indo-Pakistani relations, one that focuses on trade and investment, tackling common development challenges and building personal bridges. It required, however, Pakistan to accept that the use of coercion to force territorial changes is no longer viable. The Covid-19 pandemic provided a perfect opportunity for Islamabad to at least explore this new path, using the excuse of a common viral enemy to put aside a legacy of animosity. Instead, PM Imran Khan chose to treat the pandemic as a non-event and the military, which still determines Kashmir policy, rejected the opportunity through violence on the ground. Pakistan must accept the new reality. But a nation born in bloodshed and sustained by violence will not surrender its delusions easily and peacefully. Which is why India should take into account these designs, anticipate challenges, and respond accordingly. Security forces will have to be at the forefront of this battle to seek a conclusion of the Kashmir conflict and force Islamabad to give up terror as an instrument of State policy.

jai Ganesh