Build back, with an eye on the environment

The first peer-reviewed analysis of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on global carbon emissions has reported that daily emissions of the greenhouse gas plunged 17% by early April compared to 2019 levels. However, the annual decline is likely to be only about 7%, if some restrictions to halt the spread of the coronavirus remain in place. If they are lifted in mid-June, the fall for the year is likely to be 4%. That would still be the biggest annual drop in emissions since World War II. While the steep drop is good news, it will make little dent in the larger battle against global warming. A UN Environment Programme report last year found that emissions must fall by 7.6% every year this decade to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of checking warming at 1.5°C.

In an interview to The Guardian, one of the scientists involved in the new study said that experience of the crisis has shown that changes in behaviour by individuals — such as not flying, working from home and driving less — can help cut emissions partly. But the bulk of emission sources remain intact, which suggests that the world needs structural changes in the economy and industry. That’s why the coronavirus-induced slowdown must be used as a moment to build more sustainable, resilient and inclusive economies. Otherwise, the climate crisis will not just have its own set of effects but also lead to more health scares, environmental degradation, natural disasters, and inequality, with vulnerable communities most affected. Every crisis now has a strong environment dimension. Use the dip in emissions to imagine a new, more eco-friendly, world.

PM Modi can learn from CM ModiIn 2001, Gujarat was hit by a devastating disaster. Its economic reconstruction is worth emulating

Riko Mahato

Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation on May 12, said that ~20 lakh crore for 2020 will be the size of India’s coronavirus disease (Covid-19) economic recovery package. It was evident that he liked how the 20s rhymed neatly. Finance minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman, in a daily show over the next five days, attempted to provide the details of this package. By the end of the fifth day, it was clear that the FM realised there was a huge trust deficit in the package and mounted a pugilistic public defence, in the style of her previous avatar as a party spokesperson in a cacophonous television debate.

It also sparked an analysis frenzy on the gap between the PM’s “20s” and the FM’s numbers. Was the true fiscal size of the package, ~1 lakh crore or ~1.68 lakh crore or ~86,000 crore? Is this fiscal or monetary, an expenditure or liquidity, a demand-side or supply-side measure? This was the debate among economists, analysts, commentators and even political news anchors.

The PM’s farcical ~20 lakh crore for 2020 claim became the focal point for all discussions on what was supposed to be a serious recovery plan to help the nation bounce back from arguably the greatest economic devastation in independent India. Millions of migrants walking home, shuttered businesses and jobless Indians do not care two hoots if the package were ~20 lakh or ~2 lakh crores, as long as they get assistance immediately to survive. Alas, India’s Covid-19 economic recovery plan has descended into a struggle for media headlines more than helping a struggling economy. But, India’s political leaders and government administrators have a successful history of the reconstruction of the economy and society after a natural disaster. One example that will resonate best today is the story of Gujarat’s reconstruction after the devastating 2001 earthquake.

As the nation was celebrating its 51st Republic Day in 2001, Gujarat was hit by its worst-ever natural disaster — a 6.9 earthquake on the Richter scale. Around 20,000 people died, and 200,000 injured. A million homes, 12,000 schools, 1,200 clinics and 5,000 small businesses were destroyed. The economic impact was 3% of Gujarat’s GDP, even though the epicentre was not a major contributor to Gujarat’s economy. The Gujarat Disaster Management Authority was set up and tasked with rebuilding lives and livelihoods. An amount equivalent to 6.5% of Gujarat’s GDP and one-fifth of overall budget expenditure was immediately allocated for relief and rehabilitation. This was over the budgeted expenditure, for which money was borrowed. Gujarat’s fiscal deficit went from a budgeted 5.1% to 7.5% in FY 2001 and from 5.8% to 9.1% in FY 2002. (source: ADB) Food supplies, medical relief and cash compensation were paid immediately to the affected people. Livelihoods were restored through reconstruction activities which provided a stimulus to other sectors in the economy. This is what economists term as deficit spending in the wake of a crisis. In two years, Gujarat’s economy was back on track. No one knows this better than the then chief minister of Gujarat, who is now the prime minister.

Yet, it is befuddling that Modi is being diffident about deficit spending to cushion the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic. Perhaps, the PM fears a potential downgrade of India’s sovereign ratings by international rating agencies if the fiscal deficit is allowed to balloon like it did in Gujarat. When the rating agency Moody’s upgraded India’s ratings in November 2017, the Modi government read it as an endorsement to pursue fiscal prudence. In which case, it is important to remind the PM that the fiscal deficit is measured as a percentage of GDP, and GDP could decline precipitously if bold and appropriate measures are not taken now. So, if GDP declines much more than it should, then the fiscal deficit is going to look bad anyway, even if the government does not indulge in additional spending.

The need of the hour is to put a large chunk of money directly into the hands of the vulnerable. There is consensus among Indian industry too, some voiced publicly and most privately, that it is in their own interests to revive demand by putting money into people’s hands. It is reasonable if the government’s position is that since it is just the beginning of the financial year and the crisis still has a long way to go, one can calibrate the need for deficit spending as the situation evolves. Regardless, the timidity of the government’s response to today’s needs of the suffering millions is inexplicable and unjustifiable.

India’s Covid-19 lockdown is the harshest and the longest among all countries in the world. It is then only logical that the adverse economic impact would also be the most severe in India.

Just as we have now realised that Indian genes or soil cannot escape the laws of science and prevent the spread of coronavirus, it is also important to recognise there is no escape from the laws of economics of the adverse impact of a lockdown. Infantile claims such as ~20 lakh crores for 2020 or that the coronavirus chain of infection will be broken in 21 days are not worth discussing seriously, in this grave fight against the coronavirus and its calamitous impact.

Supporting the unemployed

India was in the middle of an economic slowdown before the pandemic. With the coronavirus, and the national lockdown imposed to curb its spread, the slowdown has potentially turned into a recession. The government’s announcement of ₹20 lakh crore package is an acknowledgment of the crisis at hand.

One key way in which this crisis is getting reflected is in the unemployment figures. Even before the pandemic, India was staring at relatively high unemployment — an official report indicated a 6% unemployment rate in 2017-18, the highest in 45 years. Over 12 million people enter the workforce every year, and India has struggled to create new jobs. This trend has now got accelerated. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the unemployment rate was 24% in the week ending May 17. Its April data shows that it was predominantly small traders and labourers, followed by entrepreneurs, and then salaried employees who lost their jobs. This is not surprising. If factories and shops are closed, if daily wage labourers and street vendors can’t work, if companies begin losing revenues drastically, there will be job losses. The problem is that the easing of the lockdown will not immediately restore these jobs.

That is why a key component of any relief package has to take into account this rising unemployment. By pumping in an additional ₹40,000 crore into the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), the government is hoping to create a financial buffer for those who have returned home to their villages. And by unveiling structural reforms, it hopes to get the economy kickstarted. But this will not solve the immediate crisis — where people, in the absence of jobs, don’t have incomes, which, in turn, makes basic livelihood difficult. The poor will get most severely affected, but so will large sections of the middle class who are staring at salary cuts or job losses, which will reduce their purchasing power and ability to take and pay loans sharply. This, in turn, will have an impact across a range of sectors. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said that she is open to suggestions and, as the year progresses, there will be more measures. India will have to look more carefully at both the United States, which is offering a generous unemployment allowance, and the United Kingdom, which has offered wage support to workers. There will be issues of resources, and identifying and targeting beneficiaries. But India may, sooner than later, need to introduce an unemployment allowance to help citizens overcome this crisis.

***The girl with poison***written by Sir Rikomht . always react and shine .. always stand in own power

"According to the outmost situation an appearance it is said that this is very much dangerous and not in the girl child. Please do not accept such kind of child.

The incident was happened four hundred year ago, the old king tathagat was killed by the enemy and in the emperor of Magadh the king Chandak was ruling the entire dynasty.

In the regions of North India there was 4 dynasty, the Kashi, Keshav,Lichhabi,and Mogadh.

The relationship between the four dynasty was very crucial and full of enmity. The king of shishunag dynasty Maharaj Chandak was doing the rull in his dynasty.

Chandak was with great figure and lot of power in his shoulder. He looked like a big buffalo.

One servant of hij Raj Mahal gave birth 2a girl child, it it was created by his father Chandak and mother Monika.

The Astrologer Dedh preparation Tu to provide the astrology of the newborn baby. After listening the future of the child Maharaja was very much surprised and became very angry.

It was forbidden Tu you do such sound in front of Maharaja Chandak and it was very difficult astrologer of Rajmahal 2 to give the information that the child was viskanya.

Gastrologist of the Raj Mahal very my silence for sometime. The laughter man Batuk bhatta why sitting behind the Raj Mantri.

He provided the strength to astrologer 2 talk about the vishkanya.

Batuk bhatta was very much short height, he asked to king Chandak for the future of the new born baby.

The king became very much angry with red eye  he announced to all hij advisor and the intelligent spiritual people present in the Rajmahal.

All the people present in the rajmohalla was provide the sympathy to go to the laughter of Rajmahal.

Maharaj Chandak asked to all of his supportive stuff what to do?"

One of them provided advisory to give such punishment like Mantri Shivam Mishra.

"So in that moment what is the work Shivam Mishra?"have you any information about him?"

One of the the spiritual leader in front of king said that" I know his status."

'"Shivam Mishra is under the ground and his head is out of the ground.

A lot of foxes  gathering in front of his head and continue to attack."

Spiritual leader said.

"He is continue to look, I think that he want to observe all the direction of the shamshan Bhumi, I was approach toward him because to serve Brahmin.

But I think ok Shiva Mishra have no intention to take food."

Said the pandit.

"The king Chandak laugh with loud and said Shivam Mishra did not follow my advice and he continue to provide the bad information about me to all the people."said the king.

The king allowed to all the people to remember him and his cruelty if anyone did any wrong with him.

The meeting hall Rajmahal became very silent and quiet. No one have any courage to speak any single word. The king told to The Astrologer of the meeting hall,"the new born baby will be destroyed and his mother also".

The astrologer urge to the king that please do not give the so much cruelty punishment toward the mother of newborn baby Monica.

And there is another way to destroy the new born baby it may be flown in the river of Ganga.

The dynasty of Patliputra was covered by 64 huge doors. The maximum door for spy and attack for the enemy. There was one path in front of Rajmahal.

The king and another member of Rajmahal I could go outside from this path.

After a few kilometre distance there was some Sun Bhoomi. It was seen from the outside that women is continuously approaching toward the shamshan Bhumi.

Gradually her appearance clear and more moderate. Women with one hand iron rod and in the another hand a left white substances. The white cloth which was raped.

In the the very Light of Moon it was not clear.

She is continue to work with very hard and penic mind, she was very much weak and feeble. After reaching the shamshan Bhumi she did not control herself, she fall down.

A very thin sound emerge from her throat. And with that voice a very little voice of baby cry has been emerged.

After a few minutes stand up again and continue to walk.

After reaching she found that there was a iron rod which was dip into the Soil and a human head is continue to observe.

The women wanted to go aside. But c cannot walk.

She continue to look all the direction and said who are you?

After a few time she dig a small hole in the sand, then she was continue to fulfilled the the whole by the sand. Now there was a small boys requesting to please save me who you are?

The lady continue to cover the cloth by the sand,but the women can't do this.

After hearing the voice of man the Omen continue to go in front of the person.She stopped.

The woman find that there was human and some foxes continue to moving around him. The head without body continue to tell that whatever you are ghost and pret please save my life.

"Who are you?" The question is arises from the woman.

The person rjs to him that he is not any ghost he is just a human. He is is the Mantri Shivam Mishra.

'My body is completely dipped into the soil please save my life.'

Monica continue to observe him.

She recognise that it is Mantri Shivam Mishra.

Monica continue to dig the soil with complete force and within some minute Shivam Mishra just take out from the soil.

Mantri Shivam Mishra asked to the lady,"why you are coming here?"

Monika Said,"I am a servant of king Chandak, today I gave birth of a a girl child. The Astrologer of the King Chandak said that the girl child is Viskanya."

Shivam Mishra take the child in his hand and continue to observe.

He continued to go to the oven  nearby area.

After observing a lot of time Shivam is said that it is really a 20 karna please give me the child and go to Rajmahal.

No one will be informed that vishkanya is still alive.

Now I will go to to another dynasty with her.

Monica did not reply. Just bent down and observe his mouth. He stand up and look toward the Rajmahal with ferocious mind and Eyes.

In that time there was a Ulka which just breakdown in the top floor of Rajmahal.

Shivam Mishra starts to smile and named her child as Ulka.

After 12 year,once upon a time the people of Patliputra suddenly attacked to the king Chandak and his hand and leg were cut and being bounded by iron chain.

The people of Patliputra Wanted 2 kill the old King Chandak gradually by providing him lot of pain.

In the another array the distance relationship of Maharajan Chandak Sanjeet was elected as new king of Patliputra.

Sanjeet has no intention to become king his only intention to do enjoyment every time, that is why he had no enemy.

The only one enemy e in his life was women. Before king he continued his life by catching forest animal and by drinking alcohol.

Sanjeet was very simple without proudness without cruelty.

After taking the the chair of king Sanjit announced that he only e provided the good knowledge and supportive action toward the neighbourhood country.

He provide announcement to all that he will not be able to take the future of the emperor.

The Tu mahamantri taking the charge of dynasty, the great king Sanjeet continue to go forest and catch animal, continue to drinking alcohol and continue to doing spiritual activity.

the emperor was very much quiet and silent with complete peace and horrific experience in the field of king emperors.

In the neighborhood there was no Kings it was completely democratic country. The Mantri was Shivam Mishra and he provide all the lessons how to to win a war and 2 to give the maximize.

In the dynasty of Vaishali Shivam Mishra was elected as president by the people of the dynasty.

The popularity of Shiva Mishra is continually growing and there was also growing a girl child in the house of Shivam Mishra.

The girl child was the child of Maharaj Chandak and Monica.

The girl child named  Ulka was full of energy and lot of beauty. Ulka was very much energetic and full of cruelty like his father.

After that a few time also has been passed.

The very much talented and highly energetic Ulka took all the lesson from Shivam Mishra like ok how to through a weapon.

When Ulka became in the age of 16 year Shivam Mishra told him everything in his life.

Siva Mr describe everything that what was his actual identity and how he was recovered.

"To take the revenge against the king Chandak I continue to take care of yours."now it is time to take revenge, today the Chandak is not exist but the dynasty of Chandak is continuing, you have to go there and you have to completely destroy the king and his future generation."

Said Shivam Mishra.

Ulka asked what to do?

Shivam Mishra said listen carefully.

I already told you that you are a vishkanya.

'You have a very attractive figure attractive beautiful look, the man must be attracted to you like insects are attracted to burning fire.

It is sure that the husband of your must be dead."

Now there is very much good relationship between Magadh and Vaishali, in that position it will be very bad to announce the the battle. The king Sanjeet is  young. It is heard that he has no intention to do battle and to improve the dynasty.

First of all you have to kill the king by attracting him.,"

Can you do it?

Said Shivam Mishra.

Ulka just smile and ine her smile it was clear that she will take revenge.

Shivam Mishra start to speak once again,"there was no high Commissioner of Vaishali in the dynasty of Magadh.

What is rule that it must be high commissioner of Vaishali.

You will go go to Magadh as the Commissioner of Vaishali and continue to trap Sanjeet."

But I am women.

Is there any forbidden to go go in the dynasty?

Seema Mishra said there is no division of men and women in the dynasty of Magadha.

Unka continue to approach Shivam Mishra and promised him that she will must destroy the dynasty of Magadha.

In the boundary of Patliputra there was a deep forest. Through this forest is going toward Patliputra alone.

She advised to every followers and friends of Har to going through the Rajpath.

Device some forbidden from the gents person but Ulka did not understand they are request.

"I can do my best I can do to self resistance and self protection."Ulka said.

She also mentioned,"all of you must wait for me after reaching in front of the main gate before enter Patliputra."

"I want to to think something for sometime for alone."

When ulka reached the second gate of Patliputra. Her friends and soldiers while waiting there, Ulka surprisingly observe all the direction of Patliputra.

After sometime Ulka entered into the dynasty of Patliputra.

After a few minute Ulka stand again in front of a big stone, suddenly from nearby very ferocious and horrific voice is coming from the stone.

"Give me the water, please give me the water,"

After listening the request from nearby area Ulka continue to go that place.

She found that a big iron chain from the wall has been hanged, in the end of the Hanging chain there was a a man looking like animal. The man has no hand and no leg, lot of dance and dirty hair covered his mouth. The iron chain was very much hot and untouchable by the heavy sun ray.

The man hanging from the chain continue to look toward the water and said," give me water .give me water."

Ulka continue to look toward him, she has no mercy, no intensity to help. She imagine the people of Magadha is very much cruel and not any humidity.

The person hanging from the iron chain soar like animal,"please give me. Ulka requested to another word for giving water to him.

After sometime Ulka asked,"who is given you're such punishment? What is your name?"

The man replied,"you do not know?"

There is no person in Patliputra who you do not know me.

I am the lord Maharaj Chandak."

I am the king of Magadh. Do you understand? I am the real king of Magadha. I am Chandak. I am Chandak."

Ulka became very much surprised. Her body is continue to shaken, his breath is became very frequent.

Somehow full control herself and told to friend,"all of you kindly go to the shade of tree and wait for me."

After a few time Ulka turn down from the horse and gradually approach to the king Chandak.

After frequent observe Ulka said,"are you to the previous king Chandak?"

Chandak replied,"I am not previous I am recently E and king Magadh, whenever I will alive there is only king of Magadha named Chandak."

Ulka said,"then the people of Magadha did not kill you? Have you remember the name of Monika? Have you remember the Viskanya?

Chandak had no remembrance about Monica because there was a lot of servants. But Chandok reminded the name of Viskanya.

Chandok replied,"I remember that but I already give the punishment both Shivam Mishra and the child Viskanya. I dipped them into the soil at shamshan Bhumi. The Wild foxes had eaten them."

Monica replied,"that child did not Die, Shivam Mishra was also not die."

Do you not understand and recognise your own child the mejesty? Said Ulka.

The king became spellbound and surprisingly look toward Ulka.

Ulka said,"do you know the evergreen law of shishunag family?"the person who contain the blood of this family only she can murder the king."that is why I am coming here to follow the law and kill you"

Wait a few time Ulka just enter her sharp knife into the throat of king Chandak. Chandak I had no time to speak. The heavy and huge body of Chandak continue to second in the pain of Die. I want to talk something but in spite of talking his throat continue to emerges blood.

After sometime the body become quiet and silent.

Gradually Ulka rides on the horses, she did not look back, After 16 years a revenge has been happened silently.

In this way the poisonous lady of Magadh gradually entered into Magadh by washing the hand in the blood of his father.

In the very comfortable and luxurious room Maharaj  Sanjeet is doing enjoyment by playing game with the people present in Rajya Sabha.

The king Sanjeet did not marry it can be said that he has no intention to marry he always hate women.

After sometime the king Sanjeet stand up and asked question to Batuk,"what is the time of the festival of colour?"

Batuk replied that it is very much interested and laughable that it the king Sanjeet have no interest on girls and women and have a a great hatred toward the marriage and love.

Batuk just want to know why King Sanjeet have eager to know about it.

The king Sanjeet just smiled, the smiling face of Sanjit really very much amicable and attractive.

He replied that I want to know no because at that time the women and girls became very much dangerous.

Suddenly a huge volume of sound was emerged from the outside of Rajmahal, it was look like that some special person came to the dynasty.

Maharaj King Sanjeet was became spellbound and talk to own self ,"who is present at the time of relaxation and sleeping?

King Sanjeet ordered Tu the laughter Batuk to go to watch who is present at the time?

After sometime Botuk return from the outside. He looked very much surprised and his breath rate was very deep and turbulent.

King Sanjeet said to Batuk,"why you are so much breath full?"

"The respected king it is very much surprised and spellbound incident happen, I found a woman dressed with various weapons and continue to approach toward Rajmahal."

"This is not a simple woman, it may be very beautiful woman."

Said Batuk.

"Women", replied very surprisingly with round eyes. "How it can be possible"replied King Sanjeet."

In this time the guard of main Gate entered into the Raj Mahal and inform to king that there was a woman who want to meet King Sanjeet for some special work. The woman is coming from nearby country Vaishali.

the second announce of financial services

 Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday announced a mix of financial, legislative and reform measures aimed largely at increasing the pricing power of farmers – or share of profits in farm incomes – by proposing to dismantle historical domestic trade barriers, bring new laws for freer food and commodities markets, and better infrastructure.

Sitharaman’s third tranche of measures, aggregating ~1.63 lakh crore and part of a larger ~20-lakh crore stimulus, did not contain any direct cash transfer programme for farmers, or money in hand, but is a mix of new allocations and top-up to existing agriculturally critical schemes, some of them announced in Budget 2020-21 in February.

It is also an attempt to push through critical legislative reforms that can free up India’s agricultural markets and improve farm incomes. Farming, the largest source of livelihoods, supports nearly half of all Indians and it has been hobbled by myriad archaic regulations.

According to estimates by economists and securities research firms, the measures announced thus far add up to around ~18.3 lakh crore (including around ~5.7 lakh crore of monetary measures taken in March by the central bank, and the ~1.7 lakh crore welfare package announced in late March ).

Finance ministry officials said there will be two more tranches -- one to be announced on Saturday and the other on Sunday.

DK Srivastava, chief policy advisor at consultancy firm EY India, said, “One salient feature of this tranche is that the direct fiscal cost (or cash spending) accounts for nearly 30% of the estimated benefit, which is much higher than in earlier two tranches.” His reference is to the fact the fiscal cost of the previous tranches is estimated by economists at a fraction of the overall number – a Credit Suisse report put the fiscal cost of the ~1.7 lakh crore welfare package, the ~5.7 lakh crore monetary measures, and the first tranche of ~5.94 lakh crore announced on Wednesday at around ~55,000 crore.

On Friday, the finance minister announced ~1 lakh crore to fund new farm-gate infrastructure, or simply agricultural produce markets, harvest management facilities, and a law to permit farmers to freely sell their produce to any trader of their choice, potentially ending persistent trade barriers in food trade that have been characterised by so-called agricultural market produce committees (APMCs). Sitharaman said a mechanism would be fixed to assure profitable prices for farmers, which means at least a baseline profitable price signal available at the “time of sowing”. This is referred to as price discovery, whereby farmers will be able to estimate crop prices before taking sowing decisions so that they are able to grow commodities for which there will be demand.

“A central law will be formulated to provide adequate choices to farmers to sell produce at attractive price, barrier-free inter-state trade and a framework for e-trading of agriculture produce.” She also outlined proposed changes to the Essential Commodities Act (ESA), to “enable better price realisation for farmers by attracting investments and making agriculture sector competitive.”

The indication is that the government will use the law more sparingly, a proposal for which had been made by an interministerial panel to reform the sector in January. The ESA allows the government to decide how much stock wholesale traders or even retailers can store, legally called “stock limits”. Cereals, edible oils, oilseeds, pulses, onions and potato will be deregulated, she said. Stock limits will be imposed under very exceptional circumstances.

The finance minister, responding to a question, rejected the Opposition’s charges that much of her announcements were re-allocated spending and had included taxpayer refunds. “We have included schemes announced in the Budget. But amounts are being disbursed now. When was the Budget? In February. When we are giving expedited tax refunds, it is taxpayers money. I am specifically saying that,” Sitharaman said. These reforms in “agricultural marketing”, or the mandi system that controls buying and selling of farm produce, have been a long time in the making. Various panels and economists have often argued for changing the existing structures. APMC regulations require farmers to only sell to licensed middlemen in notified markets, usually in the same area where a farmer resides, rather than in an open market. They often act as cartels, evidence suggests. In December 2010, when prices peaked during the last major spike, a probe by the country’s statutory anti-monopoly body, the Competition Commission of India, revealed that one firm accounted for nearly a fifth of the onion trading for that month at Lasalgoan APMC.

Ushered in during the 1960s, APMC regulations were meant to protect farmers from distress selling. Under the system, farmers have to go through smaller crop aggregators to access bulk buyers. Over time, this has spawned layers of intermediaries spanning the farm-to-fork supply chain. This results in a large “price spread”, or the fragmentation of profit shares due to the presence of several middlemen. Farmers often get the lowest shares.

EY’s Srivastava added that “the focus on agriculture and allied sectors in this third tranche of the stimulus package may be justified due to its large share in employment. These reforms are both welfare-improving and efficiency-augmenting”.

“Terms of trade has moved away from agriculture. That is what the government appears to have realised and trying to correct,” said economist YK Alagh.

His reference is to the total prices paid by farmers in running their households versus total prices received by selling their produce. Agriculture in India suffers negative total revenues, or negative terms of trade implying that assets going out of the sector are more than those flowing in. Farming, therefore, has steadily become an unprofitable occupation, according to a 2018 study by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a grouping of 36 countries, and the New Delhi-based think-tank ICRIER.

The government will bring in a facilitative legal framework to enable farmers for engaging with processors, aggregators, large retailers, exporters, etc, in a fair and transparent manner, the minister said. “This will ensure assured returns and risk mitigation for farmers.”

“A central law to enable farmers to sell to a buyer of their choice including online channels and marketplaces is expected to go a long way in maximizing farmer realisations while minimizing intermediary transaction costs. Farmers would be able to avail of price discovery and sell their products on both government platforms like e-NAM and private online grocery platforms,” said Arindam Guha, an economist with Deloitte India. To improve animal husbandry incomes, which gives higher net returns compared to crops, Sitharaman said: “We want to ensure 100% vaccination of nearly 530 million animals... Despite Covid-19 lockdown, 15 million cows and buffaloes have been tagged and vaccinated.” To control foot and mouth diseases, which cripples milk output of afflicted animals, the FM announced ~13,343 crore. The government will set up an Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund worth ~15,000 crore to “support private investment in dairy processing, value addition and cattle feed infrastructure”. It will implement a scheme for infrastructure development related to beekeeping, according to the finance minister, aiming to increase incomes of 200,000 beekeepers. The government has extended the Operation Greens for Tomatoes, Onion and Potatoes (TOP) to all fruits and vegetables. Under this, 50% subsidy would be given on transportation from surplus to deficient markets and 50% subsidy on storage. The finance minister also allotted ~4,000 crore for herbal plantations.

“These initiatives may prove good in the long run but they do not solve the problem of farmers whose harvests perished because of the lockdown. It is clear that the government is in no mood to compensate these losses directly,” said economist Sudhir Panwar, a former member of the erstwhile UP State Planning Commission.

All told, the government on Friday announced funding worth ~1.63 lakh crore. This includes ~10,000 crore for micro food enterprises, ~20,000 crore for fisheries, ~500 crore for beekeeping and another ~500 crore for Operation TOPs, the vegetables mission. So far, the government has unveiled measures worth over ~9.1 lakh crore in the earlier two tranches since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s address to the nation on May 12.

A vaccine will be found. Plan for its delivery

18 months away from an approved coronavirus disease (Covid-19) vaccine, and even longer from having one available at scale. Despite vaccine development being at this uncertain early stage, India must immediately start planning how to deliver a Covid-19 vaccine.

When a vaccine becomes available, every onwill have to run the fastest and largest mass vaccination campaign in history. India will have to vaccinate about a billion people to reach the level believed to confer herd immunity for Covid-19. Each day of the virus-driven uncertainty cripples the economy and imposes immense human costs. India should do everything we can to save a few critical days, weeks or months.

A task force on coronavirus vaccine development, drug discovery, diagnosis, and testing exists. This group’s focus is diffuse. Even in the area of vaccines, the group’s focus is primarily vaccine development, not the delivery. Immunising a billion people in a country as diverse as India will be a staggering operational challenge. To be successful, we need a powerful group to plan for vaccine delivery now.

To pull this off, India can draw lessons from two large, successful campaign-style exercises. Every five years, India holds the world’s largest general election, involving up to 900 million voters. Electoral rules state there must be a polling place within two kilometres of every habitation. India employs 11 million election workers to make sure every eligible Indian can vote. Every vote is cast electronically via more than 1.7 million machines. Despite these formidable challenges, India successfully conducts elections, widely considered free and fair.

The polio campaign is the second example. As recently as 2009, India had over 60% of all global polio cases. With an annual birth cohort of 27 million children, high population density, poor sanitation, inaccessible regions, high population mobility and a high disease burden, the obstacles to achieving zero-polio status seemed insurmountable. Nevertheless, India has not had a single case of the wild poliovirus since 2011, and it was officially declared polio-free in 2014. The victory was achieved through government ownership, partnerships with private and social sectors, innovations in programme delivery, technical advances, and massive social mobilisation.

There are over 90 vaccine candidates in trials, six in human clinical trials, with more being added every week. The vaccine candidates range across virus, viral vector, nucleic acid, and protein-based approaches — which means that they will require different technologies and processes to manufacture them. We don’t yet know if an eventual vaccine will require temperature control, ultra-cold temperature control, or not require any cooling to maintain its potency. We don’t know if it will be packaged and administered via conventional syringes or an innovative new delivery mechanism such as a micro-needle patch. We don’t know the duration for which an eventual vaccine will confer immunity. We don’t know its efficacy; of the people who get vaccinated, what fraction will be protected from getting sick? We don’t know how that efficacy will vary across different populations — will it be as effective for older people as for younger people, for populations in north India as in south India?

Despite these uncertainties, there is a lot for a Vaccination Task Force (VTF) to productively focus its efforts on right now.

First, for each of the key uncertainty drivers, VTF can determine plausible ranges and identify the most likely options. These can be used to draw up a set of scenarios for detailed planning. The VTF can then monitor how vaccine development is progressing. As more information becomes available, the ranges on the key uncertain variables can be narrowed and the priority order and details of plans can be revised.

Second, practise through “war games” will allow decision-makers to rapidly and correctly react to changing circumstances. An example: How to react to the possible tragedy of a small cluster of deaths in one state, most likely due to vaccine-related side-effects? Such “war games” are standard practice for militaries, and are increasingly used by corporates to allow decision-makers to improve their responses.

Third, no matter how fast production can be ramped up, there will be initial periods when only a limited supply of vaccine will be available, and demand will exceed supply. The VTF can draw up allocation and prioritisation rules. For example, first high-risk populations such as health workers; then, vulnerable populations such as the elderly; thereafter, individuals likely to be potential “super-spreaders”; and finally, the general public.

The VTF can also represent India in global agreements for an equitable allocation of vaccines and agree to rules for the timing and allocations of supply within India versus for export to other countries.

Fourth, India excels in one critical dimension — vaccine manufacturing. India alone supplies 60% of the vaccine doses purchased by the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) each year. The Serum Institute of India is the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, producing and selling over 1.5 billion doses annually.

Even if Indian manufacturers are part of global agreements to ensure equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines for every country, India can be assured of a strong negotiating position, as it brings critical production capacity to the table.

The VTF can work collaboratively with local manufacturers to understand how many doses can be manufactured in what time-frames, provide the necessary support to increase the number, and establish agreements to purchase a minimum number of doses at an agreed price.

Last, coherent, clear, and resonant communication will be a critical pillar for building trust and ensuring public receptivity and cooperation for a vaccination campaign.

If planning for vaccine delivery starts now, India will have a well-thought-through playbook to execute from when a vaccine is ready.

There is a humanitarian crisis in India. Lift the lockdown, now

There is no nuanced way to say this. India is in the grip of a humanitarian crisis. And continuing the coronavirus disease (Covid-19)-sparked national lockdown will be an unmitigated disaster.

I have moved from being a reluctant votary of the initial lockdown — my understanding at the time was that it was a short-term inevitability — to an absolute opponent. I say this with the understanding that I have gained from a 60-day (and counting) road trip, reporting through nine different states in the north, west and south of the country. There is panic, paranoia, economic devastation and, above all, acute uncertainty on the ground.

We have hit a psychological tipping point. This has become apparent to me every time I have walked the highways with migrant workers. In the initial 72 hours after the first lockdown, the mass exodus of workers from cities was because they had been forgotten by policymakers, politicians and the media. Orphaned by the system and left without wages or work, labourer after labourer, in state after state, told me that if confronted with death, they would rather die at home, with the people they loved.

But even after we went through a zillion flip flops on migrant workers — first they were ignored, then they were blamed, then they were asked to stay put, then they were asked to take trains for which they were charged fares — India’s workforce is in the throes of rage and anxiety.

It’s ironic that as some lockdown restrictions finally ease, and we are talking of reopening factories, the workers I meet are more determined than ever before to leave. In some ways, it is the comeuppance that some of the country’s businesses deserve.

But, even now, there is an assumption that, with the passage of time, these workers will return. My sense is different. In Bhiwandi, Maharashtra, it was past 1 am, when our car screeched to a halt at the sound of a child crying in the distance. In the deathly still of the night, we saw men, women and dozens of small children walking their way to Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh. They were going to cover a distance of 1,500 kilometres on foot. I ventured to suggest that they might try the trains and buses that have finally been deployed. They’d have none of it. They were just desperate to get home at any cost.

In Mumbai, a truck had been stopped at a police checkpoint. It was unclear whether the police was going to give it permission to move ahead and they did not appear keen for us to open the back flap of the vehicle. So, we clambered on to the back to discover scores of migrant workers crammed into a tiny space. They were looking to escape to Uttar Pradesh. One of them shouted at me when I tried to say crowding together might be dangerous at such a time. “I am a BSc. I am also aware of the coronavirus dangers. But I would rather die from the virus at home, than from starvation here,” he said.

These responses are a sliver of what I have been able to document from worker after worker over two months. I have met the family of Ranveer Singh who died 80 kilometres short of home from a heart attack in Agra, Uttar Pradesh. Or the family of Mukesh Mandal who sold his phone for ~2,500 to buy a fan and some rations, and then killed himself.

India’s poorest are suffering the most. But entire swathes of the salaried middle class are also in danger of being wiped out. Sectors such as aviation and hospitality are in existential trouble. Neighbourhoods are treating patients and health workers as untouchables. And society presidents are becoming bigoted tinpot dictators against domestic help, drivers and cooks.

We could have still suffered all of this had it brought us any closer to a cohesive policy against Covid-19. The lockdown’s aim was to prepare hospitals better, not eliminate the virus. But as I learnt in Mumbai’s Sion Hospital, where doctors speak searingly about why bodies are placed next to patients in wards, India’s public hospitals are still carrying a disproportionate burden.

Luckily for us, India has been an outlier in fatalities. In a country where thousands die from tuberculosis, cancer and kidney disease every day, the coronavirus death rates are not just distinctly lower than the rest of the world, but also way lower than deaths from non-coronavirus disease illnesses.

But if we do not lift the lockdown with immediate effect, we shall be confronted with mass ruin and a breakdown of all our structures — social, economic and emotional