Climate crisis: No one will be spared Shri Radhey Shri Radhey Shri Radhey

Some recent news and headlines: Extreme flooding in Maharashtra and Himachal Pradesh in India, and Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. Hundreds dead in floods in Henan (China). Heat wave in British Columbia (Canada) kills dozens. How do we make sense of all this?

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Climate scientists are wary of overstating risks, what is known as type 1 errors (false positives). But there is a real danger of type 2 errors (false negatives). As climate risks rise, type 2 errors can give policymakers a false sense of comfort that things are not so bad. After all, climate models have actually underestimated the scale of impact even at relatively lower levels of warming. Warm weather that could result in Arctic permafrost thawing is happening 70 years ahead of climate model projections.

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This week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the report of its Working Group I (on the physical science of the climate crisis), laying many doubts to rest. Global surface temperatures are 1.09°C higher in 2011-2020 than in 1850-1900. The world will breach 1.5°C of warming within the next two decades with extreme events rapidly rising.

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Weather attribution studies investigate whether specific extreme weather events are merely freak deviations from the normal range or whether they are made more likely (and worse) due to human-induced climate crisis. Take Verkhoyansk in eastern Siberia, known as the Pole of Cold for having recorded the lowest temperature north of the Arctic Circle (-67.8°C in 1892). This year, it registered the highest temperature ever within the Arctic Circle of 38°C. Studies now conclude that the severe heat wave in Siberia in 2020 would have been near-impossible without the human-caused climate crisis. The same applies to the heat wave in north-western United States and parts of western Canada this summer.

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We must, first, understand that extremes today could well become the norm tomorrow. Climate risks are non-linear and the past is not a good predictor of the future. Heavy precipitation events that happened once in 10 years in the pre-industrial era now likely occur 1.3 times each decade (rising to 2.8 times with 4°C of warming). South Asia and several parts of Africa will also face severe droughts with 1.5-2°C of warming.

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Moreover, our worries do not stop at our borders. It is tempting to dismiss disasters happening elsewhere as not being of immediate concern. But we must spot the warning signs because warming anywhere will impact our future everywhere.

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In the last 30 years, the Arctic region has warmed at 0.81°C per decade, more than thrice as fast as the global average of 0.23°C per decade. Melting ice is now the most important cause for sea-level rise — and revised estimates predict an over one metre rise in global sea levels by 2100. This is not the Arctic’s problem alone, but will severely impact coastal and low-lying areas all over the world.

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To compound the problem, blue sea water absorbs more heat than white sea ice. Melting sea ice, therefore, creates a feedback loop: More heat is trapped in sea water, which triggers more thawing. Arctic ice melt has slowed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a major ocean current that circulates warm water from the south to the north. The slowing is worse than in 1,600 years, and could disrupt rains from South America to West Africa to India.

Melting permafrost is another concern. Arctic permafrost holds nearly twice as much carbon as the atmosphere. On current trends, up to 89% of near-surface permafrost could disappear by 2100. This would release tens to hundreds of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and methane, adding to warming

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It would be foolhardy to dismiss these concerns as that of environmentalists alone. There are serious economic ramifications for India where nearly 75% of the labour force (380 million people) is exposed to heat stress. In 2030, India could lose 5.8% of working hours (a productivity loss equivalent to 34 million full-time jobs), according to the International Labour Organization. CEEW analysts find that there has been a six-fold increase in extreme flood events in Maharashtra since 1970. As India’s economic powerhouse, such vulnerability majorly threatens physical assets and financial investments.

The climate system is under unprecedented stress in human history. Rich people think they can escape. Poor people hope they can adapt. But the climate crisis will lead to untold misery, hundreds of billions of dollars of losses in infrastructure, widening inequalities and social instability. Regardless of where the extreme events occur, we will all be impacted adversely.

In a year filled with tragedy due to the pandemic, it might be too much to expect that people will care about weather extremes near the Poles. But the biggest lesson for us is that the distant is here and the future is now; the time to act was yesterday.

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Retrospective tax: A policy based on delusion gets buried.

I remember choking on my morning coffee on reading a news report which said that India’s finance minister (FM) had made a statement in Parliament that Indians won’t have to eat lizards if foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are affected.

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It was 2012, and Pranab Mukherjee was responding to a question about whether he expected the amendment in tax laws, popularly known as the retrospective tax amendment, to affect foreign investment. A pragmatic man on most occasions, his display of irritation at the thought that India’s tax policy changes would be unpalatable to foreign investors was palpable.

Tax policy has always been regarded as the sovereign right of each nation State; so why would the global investment community have a problem? Well, because just as in the case of any other investment, capital moves to economies which give investors a sense of security. And one of the foremost factors to induce such security is the transparency and stability of tax policies. Even if tax rates are high, investors will still move capital to nations as long as they know what to expect since the tax rates can be factored into their business plans. The converse, however, is repulsive — unpredictable and non-transparent rates muddied with ifs and buts, even if low, drive away capital.

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We should be considered to achieve all material of contamination .

Do not regret': US President rules out any change to troop withdrawal decision.. Shri Radhey Shri Radhey Shri Radhey Shri Radhey...

As the Taliban continued to tighten its grip over war-torn Afghanistan, US President Joe Biden on Tuesday ruled out any changes in the withdrawal of his troops from the South Asian country. Speaking to reporters at the White House Biden stressed that Afghan leaders should "come together" to fight for their country. The Afghan troops outnumber the Taliban and must want to fight... "They've got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation," he said at the media interaction as per Reuters' report.

The US President also said that he does not regret his decision to pull out as the Taliban insurgents now expanding their control to over 50 per cent of the country, nearing it to another civil war.

Washington has spent more than $1 trillion over 20 years and lost thousands of troops, Biden noted, adding that the United States continues to provide significant air support, food, equipment and salaries to Afghan forces, according to Reuters.

Afghans are beginning to realise they have got to come together politically at the top, he also said. "We are going to continue to keep our commitment. But I do not regret my decision.".

As of Tuesday, Taliban insurgents have gained control of 65 per cent of Afghanistan since the US troops started withdrawing from the country in May this year. The Pentagon says that it has already withdrawn more than 90 per cent of troops from Afghanistan. President Biden has ordered the withdrawal of all the US troops from Afghanistan by September 11.

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On Tuesday, Pul-e-Khumri northern Afghanistan became the seventh regional capital - the eighth provincial city - to come under the control of the Islamist militants in about a week. It is located at 230 kilometres (140 mi) north of Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan.

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On Tuesday, Pul-e-Khumri northern Afghanistan became the seventh regional capital - the eighth provincial city - to come under the control of the Islamist militants in about a week. It is located at 230 kilometres (140 mi) north of Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan.

Earlier, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told reporters the US went to Afghanistan to deliver justice to those who attacked them on September 11, to disrupt terrorists seeking to use Afghanistan as a safe haven to attack the United States. “We achieved those objectives some years ago,” she said. “We judge the threat now against our homeland, which is his responsibility as commander-in-chief to focus on, as being one where the threat emanates from outside of Afghanistan,” she added.

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US vows to isolate Taliban if they take power by force

A U.S. peace envoy brought a warning to the Taliban on Tuesday that any government that comes to power through force in Afghanistan won’t be recognized internationally after a series of cities fell to the insurgent group in stunningly quick succession

Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. envoy, traveled to Doha, Qatar, where the Taliban maintain a political office, to tell the group that there was no point in pursuing victory on the battlefield because a military takeover of Kabul would guarantee they will be global pariahs. He and others hope to persuade Taliban leaders to return to peace talks with the Afghan government as American and NATO forces finish their pullout from the country

The insurgents have captured five out of 34 provincial capitals in the country in less than a week. They are now battling the Western-backed government for control of several others, including Lashkar Gah in Helmand, and Kandahar and Farah in provinces of the same names.

Moderna to start local production of Covid-19 mRNA vaccine in Canada

Moderna Inc said on Tuesday it had agreed with the Canadian government to start domestic production of mRNA vaccines as the country looks to boost supplies to fight respiratory viruses, including Covid-19 and seasonal influenza.

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Under the memorandum of understanding, Moderna will set up an mRNA vaccine manufacturing facility in Canada and also give access to its mRNA development engine.

Scientists believe mRNA has the potential to target diseases that cannot be reached by conventional drugs. Such vaccines, which have shown high efficacy in preventing Covid-19 disease, contain no actual virus, instead providing instructions for human cells to make proteins that mimic part of the coronavirus.

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Last week, Moderna said its Covid-19 shot was about 93% effective through six months after the second dose, showing hardly any change from the 94% efficacy reported in its original clinical trial.

The manufacturing facility is expected to be activated on an urgent basis to support Canada with direct access to rapid pandemic response capabilities, Moderna said on Tuesday, adding that it is in talks with other governments about potential collaborations.

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To take on China, rely on diplomacy, military resolve and strong counter-measures...

The agreement for mutual disengagement of troops by China and India at the friction point of Gogra in eastern Ladakh is a step forward for restoring the status quo ante of April 2020, when Chinese forces made a series of preplanned intrusions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC)

Including Gogra, Galwan and Pangong Tso, the two sides have now stepped back at three contested points, while the standoff continues at other strategic locations and is unlikely to be speedily resolved.

Nonetheless, there are lessons to be learnt from the three areas where China and India have disengaged. The first is that sustained diplomacy yields dividends. Thanks to several rounds of talks, the two Asian giants have avoided an intensified conflict that seemed a possibility after the Galwan clash. The joint poring over of maps of each military’s perceptional lines and claims at LAC, and interactions, have conveyed in direct terms what each side wants and prefers, and shown where the potential for mutual pullbacks lies. The subtle involvement of Russia as a creative go-between to lower the heat has also helped.

While China and India nurse long-term suspicions of each other’s intentions, goals and international alignments — and these will not dissipate anytime soon — the LAC crisis diplomacy has focused on tactical specifics at the friction points. The message is that the two neighbours will not stop competing for power and influence in Asia and beyond, but they can manage the disputed border situation from sliding into war.

China has withdrawn from three encroached portions only after witnessing India’s willingness to use countervailing force, do mirror deployment or outnumber the Chinese military at some points, and mount counter-offensives across what China claims to be its side of LAC. The reality is that India redeemed itself after the Chinese offensive in April-May 2020 by displaying no hesitation to spill blood or pay China back in its own coin. The concept of “offensive defence” has guided India’s strategic infrastructure-building and force projection at LAC throughout this crisis, and this has compelled China to recalculate the costs and benefits of its expansionism.

The third lesson is that since diplomatic resolution of the crisis is dependent on military operations and show of strategic determination, India must persist on the path of “peace through strength”.

The Narendra Modi government has to keep bringing bargaining chips to the dialogue like it did in 2020 by occupying the strategic heights of the Kailash range of mountains, and letting the Chinese know that India can neutralise China’s bilateral asymmetry in military and economic power through other cards. This may include activating and operationalising Quad to apply multilateral counterbalancing pressure in the Indo-Pacific; imposing greater barriers to Chinese goods, technology and investments; and reopening the sensitive issues of the status of Tibet and Taiwan

A difficult path lies ahead in India-China relations, especially as the India-United States (US) strategic partnership is maturing and China-US ties are plumbing the depths. With approximately 50,000 troops on each side remaining at LAC, the potential for fresh violence cannot be ruled out. While Indian military proactiveness has proven to be an imperative to get China to make limited concessions, this kind of equilibrium is unstable and risks unwarranted escalation.

Peace through strength is a delicate tightrope walk. But the gauntlet China has thrown is such that India does not have the option of shying away from matching Chinese moves on the ground and in world capitals. Only a combination of bravery and wisdom can succeed in this long-drawn-out crisis..

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Those who study the Vedas and drink the some juice ,seeking the heavenly planets,worship me indirectly.Purified of sinful reactions they take birth on the pious, heavenly planet of Indra,where they enjoy godly delights.

The word trai vidyah refers to the three Vedas sama yajur and Rh.A brahmana who has studied these three Vedas is called a Trivedi.

Anyone who is very much attached to knowledge derived from these three Vedas is respected in society.

Unfortunately three are many great scholars of the Vedas who do not know the ultimate be the ultimate goal for the trie cedis.