UN Security Council to vote on new North Korea sanctions

The U.N. Security Council is meeting on Friday to vote on whether to impose new sanctions on North Korea, including sharply cutting limits on its imports of refined oil, forcing all North Koreans working overseas to return home within 12 months and cracking down on the country’s shipping.

The draft resolution circulated to all 15 council members on Thursday wouldn’t go as far as the toughest-ever sanctions that have been sought by the Trump administration, such as prohibiting all oil imports and freezing international assets of North Korea’s government and its leader, Kim Jong Un.

The resolution would cap North Korea’s crude oil imports at 4 million barrels a year and limit its imports of refined oil products, including diesel and kerosene, to 500,000 barrels a year. That would be a nearly 90 percent cut in imported fuels that are key to North Korea’s economy.

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, would prohibit the export of food products, machinery, electrical equipment, earth and stones, wood and vessels from North Korea. And it would also ban all countries from exporting industrial equipment, machinery, transportation vehicles and industrial metals to the country.

The proposed sanctions are the Security Council’s response to North Korea’s test on Nov. 29 of its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile yet, which the government said is capable of hitting anywhere on the U.S. mainland. It was North Korea’s 20th launch of a ballistic missile this year and added to fears that the North will soon have a nuclear arsenal that can viably target the U.S. mainland.

The United States drafted the resolution and reportedly negotiated it with China before circulating the final text to the rest of the council.

The last sanctions resolution was adopted Sept. 11 in response to North Korea’s sixth and strongest nuclear test explosion eight days earlier.

U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said the Trump administration believed the new sanctions imposed at that time combined with previous measures would ban over 90 % of North Korea’s exports reported in 2016.

Those sanctions prohibited North Korea from importing all natural gas liquids and condensates. It also banned all textile exports and prohibited any country from authorising new work permits for North Korean workers two key sources of hard currency for the northeast Asian nation.

The U.S. Mission said then that a cutoff on new work permits would eventually cost North Korea about $500 million a year once current work permits expire. The United States estimated about 93,000 North Koreans are working abroad, a U.S. official said.

The resolution to be voted on Friday would ban North Koreans from working abroad. It expresses concern that the foreign earnings from these workers are being used to support the country’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The resolution would require all countries to send North Korean workers and safety monitors home within 12 months.

The draft resolution “notes with great concern” that North Korea is illegally exporting coal and other prohibited items “through deceptive maritime practices and obtaining petroleum illegally through ship-to-ship transfers.”

The proposed resolution would authorize U.N. member states to seize, inspect, and impound any ship in its ports or territorial waters suspected of being involved in these illegal activities. It would also order all countries to prohibit companies from providing insurance or re-insurance to North Korean-affiliated vessels.

The draft would also order all countries to de-register any vessel suspected of being involved in the transport or transfer of banned items. And it would ban the supply of used vessels to North Korea.

The resolution proposes adding 19 individuals to the U.N. sanctions blacklist.

Seventeen of those who would face travel bans and asset freezes if the resolution is adopted are foreign bank representatives. The other two are Kim Jong Sik, identified as a leading official guiding North Korea’s development of weapons of mass destruction, and Ri Pyong Chul, an alternate member of the Political Bureau of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea and first vice director of the Munitions Industry Department.

Like the previous sanctions resolution, the new draft reiterates the Security Council’s regret at North Korea’s “massive diversion of its scarce resources toward its development of nuclear weapons and a number of expensive ballistic missile programs.” It notes that 41 % of the population is undernourished.

The proposed resolution calls for a resumption of six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program aimed at the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It reiterates the importance of maintaining peace and stability in northeast Asia and “expresses its commitment to a peace, diplomatic and political solution to the situation ... through dialogue.”

After the sanctions: on North Korea

The fresh round of economic sanctions imposed unanimously by the UN Security Council on North Korea is a predictable response to mounting international frustration over the nuclear stand-off. The measures come days after the U.S., echoing suspicions in other countries, charged the North Korean government with the world-wide ‘WannaCry’ cyberattacks in May. The sanctions include an 89% curb on refined petroleum imports into North Korea, stringent inspections of ships transferring fuel to the country, and the expulsion of thousands of North Koreans in other countries (who send home crucial hard currency) within two years. Despite the crippling nature of the curbs, there is some good news on this imbroglio. As on previous occasions, Beijing and Moscow were able to impress upon the Security Council the potentially destabilising and hence counterproductive impact of extreme measures. This is significant given the intercontinental ballistic missile that Pyongyang launched in November. It was described by U.S. Defence Secretary Jim Mattis as technically more sophisticated than anything witnessed previously, and the North Korean regime’s claim that it could deliver nuclear warheads anywhere in North America has been viewed with concern. However, even as China and Russia approved the latest measures, they continued to state their preference for diplomatic engagement. It remains to be seen how much more pressure Beijing can exert upon Pyongyang.

The stated aim of the sanctions regime has been to force North Korea to halt its nuclear programme and start disarmament negotiations. In September, North Korea detonated its sixth underground nuclear device, which it claimed was a hydrogen bomb. That assertion remains unverified, but experts believe the explosion was many times more powerful than previous detonations. The development has served as a reminder to the U.S. that the scope for military options may be increasingly narrowing. Against this backdrop, a revival of stalled peace negotiations between the P-5 nations and North Korea may be the only realistic alternative on the horizon. The successful conclusion of the 2015 civilian nuclear agreement between the P-5 plus Germany and Iran affords a constructive template to move ahead with North Korea. Certainly, U.S. President Donald Trump has delivered a scathing blow to the Iran deal, even as he stopped short of scrapping it. Iran’s continued compliance with the inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency may not mean much to Mr. Trump, given his overall distrust of multilateral institutions. But that is no reason why other big powers should not pursue the diplomatic effort with redoubled energy. Countries that backed the recently adopted UN nuclear weapons abolition pact should likewise lobby Pyongyang.

Change & continuity: what lies ahead for Rupani, Thakur

 leader is as good as the party he leads. But in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party found the performance of its chief ministerial candidates at variance with that of the rest of the party. Vijay Rupani, the incumbent Chief Minister, won his Rajkot West seat comfortably, even as the BJP conceded ground to the Congress in Gujarat. Prem Kumar Dhumal lost in Sujanpur, but the BJP won big in Himachal Pradesh to wrest power from the Congress. After the poor showing in Gujarat, the re-nomination of Mr. Rupani as the legislature party leader was not automatic; there were other contenders, including his deputy, Nitin Patel. The BJP was under some pressure to send a positive signal to the Patidar community, large sections of which appeared to have shifted their allegiance to the Congress. But the party settled for another term for Mr. Rupani, not wanting to pin the blame for the below par performance on him. After all, the campaign had been led from the front by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah. Ignoring Mr. Rupani’s claim would only have meant laying the groundwork for further disaffection within the party. In Himachal Pradesh, the situation was, in many ways, very different. Despite losing his seat, Mr. Dhumal was not out of contention for the post of Chief Minister till the very end, with many newly elected members of the legislature offering to vacate their seats for him. But while recognising that Mr. Dhumal did indeed boost its chances in several seats, the BJP opted for five-time MLA Jairam Thakur as the new Chief Minister. Evidently, the reasoning was that rewarding Mr. Dhumal would be interpreted by detractors as a show of disrespect to the verdict of the people in his constituency. Also, the BJP’s ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, is known to be opposed to rewarding with ministerial posts those who have lost an election. That Mr. Thakur is a former pracharak would only have made the RSS bring greater force to bear upon the BJP in this regard.

While the choice of Mr. Rupani is a vote for continuity, it is not an endorsement of everything that he did in the short period he has been in power in Gujarat. To rule in Mr. Modi’s name is one thing, but to not be a pro-active agent in governance is quite another. Mr. Rupani will continue to be on test under the keen eyes of the Modi-Shah combine. The BJP’s rural backing seems to have shrunk and the party depended heavily on its core support base of traders and the urban middle class to win the election. In Himachal, Mr. Thakur will likely have a freer hand, but he too will be under watch. Unless he can help his party beat the incumbency disadvantage, Mr. Thakur will not be seen as having done his job. Retaining power is not as easy as re-gaining power.

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