The Development of the Gujrat. . . Lets discussion. .

The development of Gujrat after the NM era.




The little dramas around the BJP attempt to video Congress meetings, “offer” of bribes to Patel dissenters adds a touch of spice, a hint that the BJP is not as confident as earlier predicted. There is a dramatic energy to these situations. Mr. Gandhi for once seems content and capable in the driver’s seat. He looks fresh, well-groomed, well-shaved, holding forth confidently on demonetisation and GST. There is no longer a sense of fatalism, of the inevitability of defeat. The Congress at the local level has a few things to crow about, including performance in panchayat elections, thanks to the skill of its State unit chief Bharat Singh Solanki. The addition of Mr. Thakor vitaminises the party further. These are local chieftains from local territories who know local mathematics. It also highlights the unease among Thakors and Patels which might need fixing. Then there is Hardik Patel, a perpetual machine of dissent and dissatisfaction, casting doubts on whether Patels fit the Modi development model. One senses the emergence of a politics growing beyond resentment, a feeling that development in Mr. Modi’s world may not be as inclusive as he promises.


Watching these political tremors (or hiccups, depending on your perspective), one senses a demand for the different and the new. Beyond this one senses that the government has not only alienated a few dominant castes but is indifferent to Dalit feelings and sensibilities. The tremors of discontent combined with a new aura of competence the Congress has begun projecting conveys the possibility of a dramatic struggle. There is a sense that the local is emphasising its vitality again and as a wag put it, “A dogfight in Gandhinagar maybe more important than an election in Japan.”


Experts, used to the predictable grids of interest group politics, who believe caste has the supreme theme, might dismiss such speculation as trite and temporary. To this friends in Gujarat add that the Navnirman agitation too began as a flicker in the pan. But realistically, one senses that doubts about the economy and the spectre of unemployment that haunts the youth are creeping in. The BJP is seen as a split world, electorally formidable but economically incompetent. The stars are still there but the sky is getting dimmer. The dour pictures of Mr. Modi and Amit Shah inadvertently add to the gloom. The BJP might return to power at the Centre but a few upsets at the State level might add space to the future of regional politics.


But there is a symbolic challenge here that we must examine. Gujarat today is iconic of the BJP. A change in vote share, even marginal, might bruise not just the political egos of the Modi-Shah combine, but make the BJP feel less symbolically confident and less all knowing. They will be seen as bumblers of electoral math on home territory, a crime the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) may not forgive the BJP for. It might create a buzz in national politics, catalyse the voter into thinking about side bets and alternatives. The immediate impact on the electoral fate of parties may not be so important. One senses the BJP effort to make assurance double sure in its attempts to offload a bonanza of lakhs of crores on the economy.