The bond rout is a warning as the Centre looks at ramping up spending ahead of elections

ore people are losing their love for Indian bonds. Foreign investors have been net sellers of over $1 billion in Indian debt this month, almost cancelling out inflows since the beginning of the year. Domestic investors were already spooked by a widening fiscal deficit, so foreign selling now has managed to add pressure on the market. The deserting of the Indian market by foreign investors comes at a time when the Centre is looking at tapping the bond market aggressively to finance its election-year spending. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has risen by almost 100 basis points since late-July amid lacklustre investor demand. The rise in yields is due to a variety of reasons that have pushed both foreign and domestic investors to re-price Indian sovereign bonds. For one, the government is expected to step up borrowing ahead of elections; in fact, the fiscal deficit targets for the current as well as the coming fiscal year were revised upwards in the Budget. This has fuelled market fears about a rise in inflation. Further, the public sector banks, typically the biggest lenders to the government, have turned wary of lending. As the losses on their bond portfolios mount, they have turned net sellers of sovereign bonds in 2018. Another tailwind affecting bonds is the prospect of higher interest rates in the West, which has made Indian bonds look a lot less lucrative in the eyes of foreign investors. The weakening rupee, probably a reflection of higher domestic inflation and fund outflows in search of yields, has added to selling pressure.

Given these pressing concerns, it is no surprise that Indian sovereign bondshave witnessed a relief rally since news broke on March 26 that the Centre will trim its market borrowing during the first half of the coming fiscal year. The yield on the 10-year Indian sovereign bond has dropped by more than 20 basis points since that day. The Centre’s borrowing target for April-September was cut to ₹2.88 lakh crore, which is about 48% of the total budgeted borrowing for the year, in contrast to ₹3.72 lakh crore in the first half of this year. Interestingly, first-half borrowing was more than 60% of the annual borrowing target in each of the last two years. The government also announced a cut of ₹50,000 crore in the total amount of market borrowings for the year, opting instead to dip into the National Small Savings Fund to meet its funding needs. Cutting down on market borrowing is a decision linked to the market’s ‘decision’ to punish the government for profligacy. The bond rout should thus serve as a timely warning as it looks to ramp up spending ahead of elections. Lastly, with the vacuum created by the state-run banks, it may be time for the Reserve Bank of India to re-examine the rule limiting the role of foreign investors in the bond market.a

His visit strategically brings China into North Korea’s hectic diplomatic calendar.....

he timing of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to China, his first foreign trip after assuming power in 2011, is not lost on anyone. After travelling to Beijing this week in an armoured train, he held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and re-emphasised his commitment to the “denuclearisation” of the peninsula, weeks before his scheduled April 27 summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. In May, Mr. Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump are expected to meet for a historic summit. By visiting Beijing now, Mr. Kim is sending a clear message: that he is serious about his offer of talks. The visit has also helped repair relations between Pyongyang and Beijing, which had come under some strain. China was not particularly happy with the North’s nuclear tests. Mr. Xi was under pressure from the West to exercise influence on Mr. Kim’s regime. And Beijing’s support for stringent UN sanctions on North Korea that have cut its exports of coal, seafood and other goods to China has dealt a blow to its already isolated economy. Mr. Kim reportedly rejected overtures from Beijing and purged officials who had close ties with the Chinese. But now, both leaders appear to have decided to set aside their differences.

China has historically played a role in inter-Korean relations. In 2000, Mr. Kim’s father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il, had visited China shortly before a summit with South Korea. In 2003, China launched the Six-Party Talks aimed at peacefully resolving the North Korean nuclear crisis, which eventually failed. Mr. Kim’s visit to Beijing has reinstated China’s central role in talks over the Korean crisis, which both countries see as mutually beneficial. For the Kim regime, China’s experience and guidance could come in handy when it is preparing to engage with two of its biggest rivals. China, for its part, would not like to be bypassed by the U.S. and the North in any diplomatic process. If the Kim regime’s fundamental objective is its own survival, China’s interest lies in a peaceful resolution to the crisis in a stable political environment in its neighbourhood. This enables convergence of interest for both in the diplomatic process. But there is still much uncertainty over the peace process. Mr. Trump may have agreed to meet Mr. Kim. But since then he has inducted into his team two officials with hawkish views on North Korea — Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as National Security Adviser. As of now, it is anybody’s guess what the U.S. would do next if the Trump-Kim summit fails to produce a breakthrough. In such a volatile context, robust multilateral intervention would be needed to stay the diplomatic course. The Xi-Kim meet could be a step in that direction if China agrees to be a balancing force and a facilitator of talks between the North and the U.S.

Testing exam: restoring trust in the CBSE exam process

The Central Board of Secondary Education faces a serious erosion of credibility with the leak of its annual examination question papers on Economics for Class 12 and Mathematics for Class 10. Thousands of students are naturally frustrated that their best shot at these papers has come to nought; they must now make another strenuous effort in a re-examination. Clearly, the Ministry of Human Resource Development failed to assign top priority to secrecy and integrity of the process, considering that its standard operating procedure was easily breached, and the questions were circulated on instant messaging platforms. Yet, the problem is not new. State board question papers have been leaked in the past. When the HRD Ministry was asked in the Lok Sabha three years ago what it intended to do to secure the CBSE Class 12 and 10 examinations, Smriti Irani, who was the Minister then, asserted the inviolability of the process, since the question papers were sealed and stored in secret places and released to authorised officials with a window of only a few hours. In addition, the board has dedicated secrecy officers for each region. But the protocol has failed, and HRD Minister Prakash Javadekar should conduct a thorough inquiry to get at the truth and initiate remedial steps without delay. One of the options is to institute a National Testing Agency, although it was originally supposed to take charge of entrance examinations in the first phase. State school boards also need help to reform systems.

A major leak such as the one that has hit the CBSE raises a question often debated in academic circles: is a high-stakes test the best option? To some sociologists, the use of a quantitative indicator with rising importance for social decision-making makes it more vulnerable to corruption pressures, and distorts and undermines the very processes it is intended to monitor. That seems to be an apt description of what has taken place. Today, what is needed is a credible testing method to assess a student’s aptitude and learning. But the answer may lie not in one all-important examination, but in multiple assessments that achieve the same goal. Such an approach will end the scramble for high scores in a definitive board examination, and the exam stress that the government has been trying to alleviate. It will also limit the fallout of a leak. These and other options need to be debated by academic experts. More immediately, the CBSE has to restore faith in its processes. The board went into denial mode when the leaks were first reported, but subsequently decided to acknowledge the problem and ordered a fresh examination in the two subjects. In the current scheme, the annual exercise is all-important to students. Everything should be done to inspire total confidence in the board examinations.

My autobiography the wisdom of life

When I Was Born there was different atmosphere and different surroundings of our family.

There is no good room for us no good dress no nutritious food.

In a little village of West Bengal no pissed Road No transport no good socio-economic conditions was there.

But still all deficiency and the contradict our family was better than other full family as per for normal.

As per natural life headstrong power to think Hai To assume higher to gain highest.

My respected and God equivalent for underage uplift our family with heart and soul tooth and nail.

I always did namaste in the foot of him .

Hi thanks for you support thanks for this belief and especially thanks for advice and good voice who is update my mind Ignite me and provide more confidence to achieve success.

Do some time I felt angry and I disagree to my activity of my father but his strength is his strong believe in his strong power of imagination and Eastern power to memorize a great helping hand to all every elemies.

I love my father so much and for him I can sacrifice my life to fulfill his voice hope and practice and Desire dream and crave.

Thank you dad and thank you my mother.

Om Namo pitaai and Om Namah Mata

First of all we have to celebrate that all fine and cities and concentrate on education toward the perfect sense of greatness.

Thank you God for providing such a beautiful life. Thank you dad providing such a beautiful life.

Thanks all for supporting.

Every time when we think about that the greedy and dignity of life we must provide and sacrifice all the human behaviour and cont you're the greatness of life.

New Delhi and Islamabad must address the tit-for-tat harassment of each other’s envoys

Regardless of the provocation or the sequence of events, there is an urgent need for India and Pakistan to address allegations of harassment of each other’s diplomats and interference in High Commission work. While surveillance of diplomats by intelligence agencies in New Delhi and Islamabad is not new, matters have escalated in the past month, and the treatment of diplomatic officials by both sides has dropped to new lows. The spark for this round of ‘tit-for-tat’ actions appears to be an incident in February, when alleged ISI agents roughed up Pakistani construction workers headed for the Indian mission’s new building site in Islamabad. While Pakistan’s foreign office claimed they did not have security clearance to enter the diplomatic zone, India saw it as an attempt to stop the work, adding that power and water connections were tampered with. Then, the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi claimed that Indian security personnel warned repairmen and electricians against entering its premises. Both missions said personnel were being targeted on the road, with cars stopped and drivers intimidated. Other instances on both sides include obscene phone calls, stoppage of milk and newspaper delivery to diplomats, and even 3 a.m. doorbell rings.

The timing is clearly more than just coincidence, and the incidents mark a deliberate policy by India and Pakistan to give their intelligence agencies a carte blanche to target the other side. It is unfortunate that things have come to such a pass, weeks after the two countries agreed to humanitarian measures for prisoners, with Pakistan Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif accepting External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s proposals on the issue. The allegations of harassment are more serious than just shadow-boxing, and must be checked in order to avoid a further slippage in ties. They constitute technical violations of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961) and the subsequent Vienna Convention on Consular Relations (1963), which clearly state that a diplomatic agent’s person, premises and property are inviolable and must be respected and protected by the “receiving state”. The fear is that as a next step in this spiral, India and Pakistan may even take stronger measures, including sending back diplomats or scaling down their missions. India had declared Islamabad a non-family post in the wake of the terror attack on an army school in Peshawar; Pakistan may now follow suit by withdrawing its families from Delhi. At a time when bilateral dialogue has been stalled for years, and ceasefire violations are becoming the norm on the Line of Control, any escalation will impact the few lines of communication that remain. Cooler counsel must prevail.

The Chinese President further consolidates his power through an administrative rejig

Its no stranger to reform. Over the past three decades the structure of the government has changed at least half a dozen times. But the scale of reform pushed through this month is comparable to that of 1998 when Zhu Rongji as Premier shut or merged 15 ministries as part of a major liberalisation drive. This time, Prime Minister Li Keqiang has closed six ministries, two ministry-level agencies and seven vice ministry-level departments. Beijing has also created a powerful anti-corruption agency, while the Vice President, till now holding a ceremonial post, is expected to play an active role in policymaking. The stamp of Xi Jinping, re-elected President for five more years with no term limit, is visible in these reforms. A big decision is the empowerment of the Environment Ministry, which will fight air, water and soil pollution, a top priority for Mr. Xi. Two of his close aides have been appointed to key posts — Wang Qishan, an anti-corruption crusader, is now the Vice President, and Liu He, the President’s top fiscal adviser, is a Vice Premier. Mr. Wang is expected to play a leading role in China’s engagement with the U.S. at a time when fears of a trade war loom. Mr. Liu is to head the recently created Financial Stability and Development Commission, which will coordinate between the banking and securities regulators and work towards trimming China’s debt burden. This takes away some of the powers of the Prime Minister, who has traditionally been China’s top economic official. The National Supervision Commission, which is ranked above the judiciary, will have sweeping powers to fight corruption, including the power to detain suspects for up to six months without access to lawyers.

The common thread in these changes is the strengthening of Mr. Xi’s full-blown control over party and government. Earlier this month, by amending the Constitution to remove the two-term limit on the Presidency that was introduced during Deng Xiaoping’s time, the Chinese Communist Party signalled that it was moving away from the “collective leadership” motto to a new era under Mr. Xi. With the latest measures, he is consolidating his hold. The political stability that China has enjoyed over the last two and a half decades was a result of high and sustained economic growth coupled with reform. By concentrating so much power in his hands, Mr. Xi has risked reversing the changes that have become institutionalised over the last three decades. He may enjoy a measure of popularity and have the support of the party for now, but such concentration of power is bound to engender opposition and criticism. His decision to lift presidential term limits has already triggered an uproar on China’s social media networks, prompting the authorities to censor a host of words and phrases, including Animal Farm, the title of George Orwell’s dystopian novel. Mr. Xi will ignore these intimations of discontent only at his own risk.