A European Union Army: Objective or Chimera?

azil, Latin America’s largest economy, has been coasting along comfortably with record low inflation for a decade and healthy foreign direct investment to sustain the path of recovery from a recent recession. But the “Lava Jato” anti-corruption movement that rocked it three years back seems to be a long way from delivering on the promise of democratic and transparent governance. Inquiries into public fraud by politicians and captains of business have brought skeletons tumbling out of the cupboard. When Dilma Rousseff, then President, was impeached last year, it had appeared that the worst was over. But now the incumbent President, Michel Temer, has been indicted by Brazil’s top prosecutor. The script is sickeningly familiar. Ms. Rousseff was implicated over a scandal in the state-owned oil giant and its construction arm. The accusation against Mr. Temer is complicity in the authorisation of heavily subsidised public loans for a private corporation in return for political patronage. He has vehemently denied the charges, and termed the Lava Jato campaign, which he had once sympathised with, a witch hunt against political representatives.

The course of the investigation against Mr. Temer is as yet uncertain. But his position appears far less precarious than that of his predecessor. The requisite vote in the lower House of Congress to authorise a criminal trial may not materialise eventually, as most members are themselves facing investigations. Representatives from his centre-right Brazilian Democratic Movement Party and Ms. Rousseff’s Workers’ Party have called for the resignation of Mr. Temer. But indications are that few have the appetite to precipitate the situation further. Moreover, upon Ms. Rousseff’s downfall, Mr. Temer, who was Vice-President then, had been catapulted to the country’s highest office. With the next presidential election scheduled for 2018, the search for a successor may not be easy. This continuing turmoil puts at risk assurances of reforms to Brazil’s labour laws and generous pension system. The controversial raising of the retirement age was seen as a major push to overhaul what was one of the world’s most envied social security programmes. Arguably, the Brazilian Left leaned too much towards an unsustainable populist agenda in the heady years of the commodities boom. But its counterparts on the Right appear ill-equipped to position themselves as a realistic alternative despite attempts to attract overseas investment. Like other nations in the region, Brazil badly needs a strong centre that is not tempted to tilt at the windmills of populism. That is the best chance of ensuring accountability to the people and engagement with the rest of the world.